#比特币对比代币化黄金 Bitcoin experienced intense volatility between $88,000 and $92,000 this week, as the impact of year-end liquidity exhaustion gradually became apparent. The market has become extremely sensitive to every small flow of funds, but judging by the scale of liquidations, actual participation is continuously shrinking—open interest in perpetual contracts has dropped 40 to 50% compared to the October peak, and retail sentiment has clearly returned to a bear market rhythm.

Interestingly, the supply side is quietly tightening. In the past two weeks, about 25,000 bitcoins have left exchanges for cold wallets, and for the first time, ETF and institutional holdings have surpassed the amount of coins held on exchanges. This indicates that while retail investors are busy bottom-fishing or capitulating, smart money is quietly positioning.

The Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the anchor for the week. The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key will be the guidance on the balance sheet going forward—this will directly affect the direction of risk assets at year-end. For now, Bitcoin is still swinging in the $84,000 to $100,000 range, but market depth is deteriorating. During the year-end holiday overtime period, any breakout in either direction could trigger a real trend move. $BTC