#比特币投资周期分析 Looking back on the history of Bitcoin investment, I can't help but feel a surge of emotions. There was a time when we used the four-year halving cycle to predict the market, but now that model seems to have become obsolete. A new two-year cycle is taking shape, with institutional capital taking the lead. In the past, miners' supply and retail investor sentiment dominated the market; now, ETF capital flows have become the key indicator. From $70,000 to $96,000 and then to $107,000, each price level contains different breakeven points for various investors. This reminds us that we can no longer view the market with old perspectives. Institutional investors seek stable returns, and their decision-making logic is very different from that of retail investors. If Bitcoin goes sideways for a long period, it could actually trigger selling, as expected returns won't be met. It seems that in the future, we need to pay more attention to metrics like ETF holding costs and capital flows, as these might help us understand new market dynamics. Looking over more than a decade of Bitcoin's development, change always happens quietly; only by continuously learning and keeping up with the times can we maintain an edge in this ever-changing market.