Nvidia saw a sudden surge after hours, with rumors circulating that the H200 export restrictions to China might be lifted. But here's the question—does this situation really look as rosy as it seems on the surface?

Let’s break down the logic: The US Department of Commerce giving the green light is only the first hurdle. A leading GPU manufacturer losing all its market share in China isn’t just about American sanctions. Considering data sovereignty concerns, domestic authorities have already advised tech companies to suspend procurement of such high-end chips. Now that the US is unilaterally relaxing restrictions, will these orders even pass domestic approval? That’s the real make-or-break point for whether deals can go through. It's like getting the key to open the first door, only to find a second iron gate locked inside—how do you conduct business under these circumstances?

The timing is even more intriguing. Why specifically the H200? It’s a product nearly two generations behind the latest architecture. To put it bluntly, this is a defensive compromise. Breakthroughs like China’s Ascend ultra-node solutions and advanced manufacturing processes achieved through multi-patterning have made it clear to competitors: continuing a full-scale blockade will only force the rise of a fully independent ecosystem.

The current strategy seems more like using near-top-tier products as a buffer—to grab some market share while trying to slow down the industry’s move toward a closed-loop supply chain. But how long can this fence-sitting tactic last? Once the push for semiconductor self-sufficiency starts, there's no reason to call it off halfway. From core computing power demands and supply chain security to diverging technology paths, this game is far from over.