2025-12-09 01:20:30

To be honest, SOL’s current chart looks pretty dangerous. That head and shoulders pattern on the weekly is right there for everyone to see. Since 2023, it’s skyrocketed more than tenfold, and even without an ETF last year, the price already peaked. This year, the ETF got approved, right? But the gains didn’t even manage to double.

Trying to replicate ETH’s kind of explosive surge? I think it needs a harsh move first—a spiral plunge, a straight-up 50% washout. Why? The leverage in staking and lending is way too high; the car is overloaded and just can’t run. Everyone’s locking up their tokens waiting for a pump, but who’s left to be the bag holder and push the price up? These high-leverage positions need to be flushed out first so the token structure can lighten up and really move.

SOL3.54%

ETH6.95%

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SmartContractPlumber

· 1h ago

It sounds logical, but the leverage is more meticulous. Loopholes in lending agreements are also prone to explosions, and several plunges in history have been accompanied by contract risk release. Washing the disk is not enough, it depends on whether there are hidden dangers at the permission control level.

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AirdropSkeptic

· 4h ago

Who dares to chase the top of the head and shoulders so obviously, I feel that this wave is more bad luck than good fortune SOL ETF doesn't seem to have much imagination, and it knows it's not as good as Stud BTC There are too many levers, and you really have to wash it, otherwise it will be lifeless This logic is a bit amazing, you have to go bankrupt first to make a fortune? If you cut it in half, you may really be able to rebound, but you are afraid that you will not be able to rebound

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AltcoinMarathoner

· 18h ago

honestly the leverage situation is gnarly—like we're 20 miles into the marathon but everyone's carrying extra weight they don't need. if sol shakes out the weak hands first, cleaner structure emerges. fundamentals still intact tho

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GasBankrupter

· 12-09 01:49

Only a halving shakeout can be satisfying; right now it’s just bloated by high leverage.

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RugDocDetective

· 12-09 01:47

It has to be cut in half before it can rise, this logic is truly ruthless. I'm just stunned; even with ETFs here, it still can't move up, it's really awkward. All those leveraged positions in staking really need to be cleared out, otherwise who would dare to chase? SOL is just stuck right now; it needs to break through first before it can rise. This head and shoulders top has been sitting here, and I've been watching it for half a month already.

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GasOptimizer

· 12-09 01:45

It has to be halved before it can rebound, this logic is wild haha The leverage on SOL is really stacked ridiculously high, it definitely needs a shakeout There's a head and shoulders pattern here, so dropping down is normal Too much is staked and locked up, it's basically immovable Agree with clearing positions first, only then will there be opportunities later

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MerkleTreeHugger

· 12-09 01:44

Only after a halving washout can it take off? I've heard this logic too many times, and what happened in the end? SOL is indeed a bit stuck this time, and it's true that leverage is piling up. But if you want me to wait for a halving, I’m afraid I’ll be stuck holding the bag long before that happens.

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FlashLoanKing

· 12-09 01:26

Cut in half? I don't think it'll be that bad. This time, a 30% drop should be enough to shake things out. SOL's leverage is definitely overloaded, and even the ETF couldn't save it. This shows the problem isn't policy, it's the distribution of tokens. Wait, if we really get a spiral crash, wouldn't my small position be wiped out? Better stay on the sidelines. The head and shoulders pattern does look scary, but could it be a fake breakout? Anyway, I didn't dare to add to my position. This cycle is completely different from 2023. Stop always thinking about doubling your money—steady growth isn't bad, right? Too much staking is really a trap. These guys should've reduced their positions a long time ago.

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DataBartender

· 12-09 01:21

The head and shoulders top pattern is really scary. If there's too much leverage, there has to be a washout. I like this analysis. Cutting in half is the only way to lighten the load and get back in; makes sense. ETFs can't save SOL, still have to wait for liquidation. Staking positions are locked up too much, no wonder it can't move. Break down first then rise, it's the usual routine. The leverage monsters need to be wiped out first. SOL is just like a traffic jam right now, it needs to be cleared up first.

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