#数字货币市场洞察 The latest consumer expectations survey from the New York Fed is a bit of a reality check—the median inflation expectations for the next 3 and 5 years remain stuck at 3%, unchanged from last month. You might think inflation is already coming down, but people’s outlook on medium-term prices is still that pessimistic. This is what’s known as “sticky” inflation expectations.

Why does this matter so much for financial markets? Simply put, this survey from the New York Fed is closely watched inside the Federal Reserve as the “anchor” for long-term inflation. When 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations are firmly stuck at a high 3%, it means households and businesses believe prices will keep rising in the future, still far from the Fed’s 2% policy target. Here’s the problem—if everyone thinks this way, businesses will raise wages and prices, employees will demand higher pay, and real inflationary pressure won’t come down.

This data is a powerful weapon for the hawks inside the Fed. They can use it to say: Look, we need to be patient and can’t rush to cut rates. As long as consumer inflation expectations stay this high, the Fed may have to keep rates elevated for a long time to really turn those expectations around. So, all those market dreams of “big rate cuts in 2025” might get crushed.

What’s the reality? A prolonged high interest rate environment will hit valuations hard, especially for growth assets without stable cash flow—they’ll have a tough time. On the flip side, the dollar may continue to strengthen as expectations for rate cuts get pushed back.

This inflation battle is about to enter its toughest stage yet. $BTC