This week is quite critical for the crypto market, as several major data releases and policy decisions could directly determine the trend for the next month.

First, let's talk about the JOLTs job openings data on December 9, with market expectations at 7.2 million. This number reflects how tight the US labor market really is. If it comes in below expectations, it indicates that employment is cooling down, which gives the Fed more room to cut rates and naturally improves liquidity. On the other hand, if it exceeds expectations, it means the labor market is still strong, and the rate cut expectations for 2026 may be pushed back.

On December 10, the main event arrives—the Fed’s interest rate decision. The market currently puts a 94% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut, so it’s almost a done deal. The rate cut itself won’t cause much of a stir; the key is what Powell says.

Bank of America predicts that Powell might mention "reserve management purchases." In simple terms, this operation injects new liquidity into the system, helping small banks ease funding pressure and bringing SOFR rates back to normal levels. This is good for overall market liquidity.

If Powell's speech is dovish—for example, emphasizing falling inflation, limited tariff impact, and a softening labor market—the market will immediately sense more signals of future rate cuts. But if he takes a hawkish tone like at the last FOMC meeting, $BTC and various altcoins will likely take a hit.

There’s also the PPI inflation data to watch on December 11. If the data is hot, people will go risk-off in the short term; if it’s soft, it confirms the trend of cooling inflation, which is positive for the market.

Why are these so important for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL? Because Bitcoin’s price is highly correlated with US Treasury yields, the strength of the dollar, and market liquidity. When yields go down, Bitcoin goes up; when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin goes up; when liquidity is loose, Bitcoin still goes up.

Looking back at previous cycles, every time Powell turned dovish and inflation data cooled, Bitcoin was always the first asset to take off. $ETH would follow closely, and once liquidity expectations really kicked in, other cryptocurrencies would catch up as well.

So if Powell’s speech is dovish enough and the inflation data cooperates, Bitcoin may break out of its current consolidation range and lead the whole crypto market into an upward channel. Conversely, if he remains hawkish, the market will have to endure more pain.