This week's rate cut might not be as optimistic as you think...

The market is focused on Thursday's early morning rate cut decision, but the real highlight is actually the press conference half an hour later. Powell's rate cut this time seems more like he's being forced by circumstances—he previously made it clear that he's not inclined to continue cutting rates, so the speech at 3:30 will most likely send a tough signal and prepare the market for a pause in future rate cuts.

If you do the math, you'll see: after this cut, the interest rate will be down to 3.5%, basically returning to a neutral level—it's far from being restrictive. But what about inflation? It's already jumped to 3%, still far from the Fed's 2% target. Economic data isn't showing much weakness either, so in this situation, there's really not much reason to continue easing.

Personally, I think that after the rate cut is delivered, the market may actually turn downward. It's hard to say how long the adjustment cycle will last, but at least for the next six months, don't expect a big rally. Of course, if you don't like to be too active, just stay on the sidelines—there's still time to get in after a real dip next year. Things should change in the second half of the year: with a new chair coming in, there's a good chance of a policy shift. Once liquidity loosens, a new cycle will naturally begin, and there will be opportunities for the next three to five years.

To put it simply, we're in the toughest period right before the turning point. The bull market isn't dead; it's just tired and needs a break. By the second half of next year, it'll probably be lively again.

That's all for now. I did make some good trades today and took profits, so I'll call it a day.