Powell’s path to rate cuts has been anything but smooth.

For this year’s final FOMC meeting, the market widely expects another 25 basis point rate cut—this would be the third cut this year. But don’t be fooled by the surface-level consensus; internal divisions are widening. It’s expected that three committee members will vote against the cut again.

What’s even more interesting is the data behind the scenes: if there really are three dissenting votes in December, that would make it four consecutive meetings with dissenters. The total number of dissenting votes over this period would soar to eight, matching the total from the previous 47 meetings combined. What does this mean? The level of disagreement in recent months equals that of the past several years.

The controversy still centers on the same old issue—where should the neutral interest rate be set? There’s no consensus in the committee on this figure. Powell has been working hard to bring more people on board, but with limited success.

Adding to the delicate timing, Trump is about to nominate a new Fed chair. If the rumored candidate Hassett actually takes the position, he’ll face a group of colleagues who are only half-convinced by the current policy direction. Frequent dissenting votes may become the new normal.

So even if the rate cut goes through this week, the language is likely to be hawkish. After all, with so much internal disagreement, they’ll need to send a signal of caution to the outside world.