The result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be announced this Thursday, and the market generally expects that the rate-cutting cycle may restart. Immediately after, on December 19, there are rumors that the Bank of Japan may also take action to raise rates.

What impact will the overlap of these two time points have on the crypto market? Especially for ETH, how should we view it in the context of such macro changes?

A Fed rate cut usually means looser liquidity, which theoretically benefits risk assets; but a rate hike by Japan would tighten the space for yen carry trades, possibly triggering capital outflows. With these two forces intertwined, the direction is indeed hard to predict.

Personally, I think the key lies in the Fed's wording—will it be a dovish rate cut or a hawkish pause? If there really is a cut, ETH might have some short-term rebound potential; but we need to be alert to the chain reaction from Japan, as volatility will definitely increase. At times like this, position management is more important than predicting the direction.