No one is denying the word “bear market” now. But after just one month of declines being this fierce, to be honest, I’m a bit stunned. If we really have to endure this for a year, will it eventually go all the way to zero?

What’s even more alarming is the long/short ratio. It’s ridiculously high. This shows that there are still a lot of people in the market busy trying to catch the bottom. Frankly, instead of chasing the crowd and rushing to buy, I’d rather wait until the trend is fully confirmed before making a move. I don’t want to be the last one holding the bag.

My bearish stance isn’t baseless. First of all, the four-year cycle is completely over. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts have all broken down. The trend is extremely weak. That’s the most convincing signal.

Here comes an even more contradictory phenomenon. The market is this panicked, yet BTC and ETH perpetual contract funding rates are still positive. The longs are actually in the majority. This means the bubble hasn’t been fully squeezed out.

Look at when BTC fell below 100,000. The rebound was pitifully weak and still hasn’t climbed back above 100,000. This kind of strength doesn’t look like a reversal at all. Plus, with geopolitical uncertainties increasing, big players are all watching from the sidelines. Why should we retail investors rush in blindly?

There are still plenty of people on social media hyping up bottom-fishing opportunities. But looking back at every extreme panic in BTC’s history, after a small rebound, it always falls back into the abyss. I have a very clear standard for judging a reversal: when no one is calling to buy the dip anymore; when ETH perpetual contract volume is even lower than BTC; when spot trading volume for major coins keeps bottoming out—that’s when it’s worth betting on a rebound.

At this stage, even if you enter, you can only test the waters with a small spot position. Stop-losses must be set strictly. Because if there’s an extreme drop and crypto-related companies are forced to liquidate, you simply won’t be able to escape a stampede. Another detail that really stings: since mid-October, liquidity has been continuously shrinking. New entrants are all leaving, and money is only flowing out, not in. There’s no sign of improvement in the short term.

The current market is really grinding people down. You want to buy the dip but are afraid of getting trapped. You want to short but are afraid of missing out. But at times like this, you need to stick to discipline even more. Don’t let FOMO hijack you. Before the trend reverses, waiting is the best strategy. As long as the voices calling to buy the dip haven’t died down, we should just be good spectators. Protecting your capital is always the number one priority.