Market sentiment is on steroids! On prediction platforms, the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 93%, and bullish voices are everywhere in trading groups. But let’s stay calm—a different story is hidden behind these numbers: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in January has already climbed to 68%.

What does this data comparison tell us? Short-term policy easing may just be an “appetizer.” If there really is a cut in December, that’s the shoe dropping—what happens after the excitement fades? If rates hold steady in January, or even hint at a tightening bias, liquidity could instantly tighten. It’s like being handed a cigarette, only to have the whole pack snatched away right after.

History always repeats itself. Remember the wave at the end of 2021? Everyone thought the easing would last, but policy suddenly reversed, high-leverage positions were liquidated en masse, and the damage was brutal. This time might be even more subtle—using December’s “warm water” to lower your guard, then catching you off guard with a “hard brake” in January. Can your current longs, altcoin holdings, and leverage levels withstand that kind of shakeup?

What should retail investors do? Don’t follow the herd—stay rational:

- Control your leverage ratio, especially for positions held across the new year—survival is more important than anything.
- Allocate defensive assets—hold on to your BTC and ETH spot positions, and don’t panic over short-term volatility.
- Keep cash reserves—if expectations reverse and the market plunges, that’s your window to buy low.

The market is always more cunning than you. The information it shows you is often carefully curated. The truly skilled stay calm amid collective mania and spot opportunities in collective panic.

Policy turning points often hide in the most inconspicuous details—what we need to do isn’t to predict the direction, but to be ready for every possibility.