#美联储重启降息步伐 Two central banks are fighting, what should $BTC do when caught in the middle?

This situation is pretty rare—on one side, the Fed is preparing for rate cuts and easing, while on the other, the Bank of Japan is hiking rates for the first time ever. For those of us trading, figuring out which force is stronger basically tells us where Bitcoin is headed in the next few months.

To put it simply, this is a tug-of-war over liquidity. When a major central bank cuts rates, that’s like flooding the market with dollars—historically, every time this happens, risk assets skyrocket. But here’s the catch: Japan is ending negative rates and starting to hike, which hits a nerve for global players—those who’ve been using yen carry trades now have to unwind, selling $BTC to convert back to yen and pay off debts. This wave of selling pressure is no joke.

My take? It’ll be painful in the short term, but I’m still bullish in the mid to long term.

In the next three to six months, the “draining effect” from yen rate hikes will dominate sentiment. $BTC will likely see massive deleveraging and a deep pullback—that’s the core logic behind the bears’ bets. In terms of strategy, low leverage is key—don’t try to hold out when liquidity is drying up.

But what happens once the market digests this shock? The initiative shifts back to the real money printer. By 2026, a loose US dollar environment will become the main narrative. As funding costs drop, money needs somewhere to go—high beta assets will naturally be the top choice, plus the spot ETF channel adds more inflows. The medium-term trend still favors the bulls.

The key is to watch two indicators: the USD/JPY exchange rate tells you how intense the unwinding pressure is, while the financial conditions index shows you how tight or loose liquidity really is. The market turning point will likely come when the yen’s rapid appreciation momentum fades and the Fed sends a clear rate-cut signal. That’s when the real opportunity window opens.