#美联储重启降息步伐 This week, the market is focused on one thing—the Federal Reserve meeting at 3:00 PM Beijing time on the 11th. The rate cut itself is no longer in doubt; the real focus is whether Powell dares to loosen up on next year's rate cut path.

If he sticks to the same hawkish rhetoric, the market will most likely take a hit. But if he softens his stance in line with Trump's tone, at least it will help stabilize the current nerves. Honestly, I never take these central bank officials’ forward guidance too seriously.

The drama before last year's Christmas was the best lesson. Back then, the election was settled, the rate cut happened as planned, and the market should have had a decent year-end. But Powell's speech compressed the rate cut expectations for 2024 to just two, pouring cold water on the market.

But what happened in reality? This year they've actually cut rates four times. What does that tell us? These so-called policy frameworks are more often tools for managing expectations, not real action guides. When real problems arise, their reaction is faster than anyone else’s.

It’s the same now—the dot plot has limited reference value. If they really insist on sticking to the inflation target, it's basically pushing the economy into a recession. But if they choose to prioritize economic growth, the pace of rate cuts will only be more aggressive than currently expected—inflation is just an excuse.

Once the new chair takes over the Fed, the policy stance will most likely align more closely with the White House's intentions. The rate cut cycle is bound to come; it’s just that this December meeting is destined to make people uncomfortable for a while.