I. Market Overview

Based on the provided candlestick (K-line) data, the latest price of Ethereum (ETH) is 3100.98 USDT, which is the closing value of the most recent daily K-line and also the latest price point on the hourly K-line within the last 48 hours. Over the past 14 days, the daily K-line shows significant volatility for ETH, with the low at 2716.04 USDT (the 14-day low) and the high reaching 3240.35 USDT (the 14-day high). Recently, the daily price has rebounded from the lows and has remained above the 3000 USDT mark for several consecutive days. In terms of trading volume, the past 14 days have seen notable fluctuations, with the highest daily volume at 761,680 (on the day of 2799.07 USDT), indicating substantial turnover at lower price levels. Over the past two days, daily trading volume increased from 391,071 to 51,238.2, reflecting active short-term capital, though overall trading enthusiasm is down from previous periods. On the hourly chart, the price fluctuated between 2942.65 USDT and 3134.73 USDT over the past 48 hours, showing a rebound after midnight. Combining related news and analyst opinions, the current ETH market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with rebound momentum partially restored. Analysts generally believe ETH is riskier than BTC, so short-term position management and vigilance are necessary. Recent news focuses on large institutional operations, ETF fund flows, and ecosystem innovations, with no significant short-term sentiment extremes.

II. Technical Analysis

Based on 14-day daily and 48-hour hourly K-lines, ETH’s current daily close is 3100.98 USDT, and the current hourly close is 3100.5 USDT—almost identical. The daily K-line shows ETH gradually rebounded from the 2716.04 USDT low, stabilizing above the key 3000 USDT level, forming a stage rebound. Support levels in the past 14 days are concentrated between 2716.04 and 2857.32 USDT (recent hourly low: 2942.65 USDT), with strong support at 3000 USDT and the 2900-2950 USDT range below. Resistance is concentrated between 3134.73 and 3240.35 USDT, with significant pressure above 3200 USDT. Intense capital activity is frequent at higher levels, making the 3130-3200 USDT range a key battleground. Short-term moving averages (such as 5-day and 10-day MA) are trending upward and diverging, possibly driving the price to test resistance. Volume has decreased after the rebound; if volume picks up, upward momentum could strengthen. On the hourly chart, ETH stabilized quickly above 3100 USDT after a short-term pullback, indicating strong buying support and gradually higher volatility ranges.

III. News and Policy Interpretation

Recent market news shows institutional whales have repeatedly increased long/leveraged ETH positions near 3000 USDT. For example, "a whale transferred 70 million USDC to Hyperliquid and then longed $166 million of ETH, currently with $910,000 in unrealized profit," indicating increased capital confidence. Other analysis notes deepening ETH outflows and BTC ETF fund inflows, while ETH ETF performance lags, suggesting mainstream funds are strategically allocating between ETH and BTC without a one-sided preference. News of Aztec L2’s innovative mechanism is a long-term positive for the ETH ecosystem but has not yet directly driven short-term prices. On policy, there have been no major new regulations or changes in the past month, keeping the market environment stable. Comparing news with K-line data, whale accumulation and capital operation news are concentrated around the 3000 USDT price and rebound range, with corresponding K-lines showing increased volume and price recovery, demonstrating major capital's ability to gauge and influence interim bottoms.

IV. Analyst Opinion Integration

According to analysts: "ETH is riskier than BTC; note that full position liquidation should be below $1999. ETH/USDT long while sleeping 100x leverage, 2% margin points: 1. 3081, 2% margin. 2. Forecast 3% position, pre-set stop-profit targets: 1. 3200, 2. TBD, with stop-loss." This view aligns with actual price action—ETH has repeatedly found support near 3000 USDT and has not seen sharp declines, exhibiting oscillating upward movement. Another analysis: "Night long entry at 2840-2810, take profit at 2900-2960-3040, stop loss at 2780." The actual K-line shows ETH’s recent low at 2942.65 USDT, located at the upper edge of the analyst’s range and continuing to rebound, with some strategies achieving take profit, showing that analysts’ risk control and staged bullish judgment match current market conditions. Analysts also emphasize these strategies are for reference only, recommending position control and close attention to stop-losses, highlighting high-risk attributes consistent with recent rapid pullbacks and high-volume rebounds.

V. Outlook and Operational Suggestions

Based on K-line data and market information, ETH shows a clear short-term oscillating rebound trend, holding above the key 3000 USDT level. The most critical support is at 3000 USDT, with strong support at 2950 and 2900 USDT below. The main upside resistance is in the 3135-3200 USDT range; if there is a volume-driven short-term breakout, a challenge of the previous high of 3240 USDT is possible. If ETH fails to stabilize above 3100 USDT, a pullback to test the 3000 USDT support cannot be ruled out. For operations, aggressive traders can consider moderate long positions in the 3000-3050 USDT range on dips, but must strictly set stop-losses below 2950 USDT per analyst recommendations, targeting previous highs at 3135-3200 USDT. Conservative traders may wait for a confirmed breakout and stabilization above 3100-3130 USDT before following the trend with long positions, targeting 3200 and beyond. All positions should be light with strict risk control to avoid chasing highs.

VI. Risk Warning

Both daily and hourly K-lines for ETH show intensified oscillations and increased volatility after significant rebounds, with intra-wave amplitude exceeding 10% and trading volume somewhat reduced. Some high-leverage whale accounts are trading frequently. If there is a sudden large sell-off or changes in capital flows, a retest of 3000 USDT or even 2950 USDT support cannot be excluded. Investors are advised to proactively set take-profit and stop-loss levels based on actual trading volume changes and K-line signals, guard against losses from sharp counter-moves, avoid blindly chasing highs, and strictly adhere to position management and risk control principles to cope with potential short-term sharp fluctuations.