#美联储货币政策 Looking back at the market fluctuations over the years really brings up a lot of emotions. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been one of the key factors affecting Bitcoin prices. Recent news shows that expectations for a rate cut in December are heating up, which reminds me of the situation at the end of 2018. At that time, similar expectations triggered a small rebound, but ultimately did not change the course of the bear market.

However, the current situation is somewhat different. ETF inflows have provided new support for Bitcoin, something that has never happened before in history. From on-chain data, it seems that long-term holders and institutions are taking the opportunity to accumulate, which is a positive sign. But we also can’t ignore the selling pressure from short-term holders, as market sentiment remains quite fragile.

Thinking back to the frenzied bull market at the end of 2017, it also occurred under the expectation that the Fed's rate hike cycle was about to end. If history really does repeat itself in some form, are we standing at the starting point of a new cycle? In any case, it’s wise to remain cautious and patient. After all, the market always surprises or shocks you when you least expect it.