#数字货币市场洞察 has recently set sights on a DeFi lending project—$MORPHO, which is quite interesting both technically and fundamentally.

Let’s start with the chart. The price has been consolidating around $1.20 for a few days, with the RSI dropping to the oversold range of 30-40. The MACD is still bearish but has started to show a bullish divergence (price making new lows but the indicator not following). The support at $1.18-$1.19 is solid, and the 4-hour chart shows a rebound from $1.19 to $1.20. Trading volume has shrunk significantly, indicating most of the selling pressure has been released. Resistance is at $1.24 and $1.25—breaking above these levels should open up more upside.

Now for the fundamentals. MORPHO is a permissionless lending protocol, currently with a TVL of $6.33 billion ($3.05 billion on Ethereum + $2.12 billion on Base), and $3.11 billion in loans outstanding. These numbers put it at the top tier of DeFi lending protocols. The rate-cut cycle is a direct positive for such protocols—lower borrowing costs, increased liquidity. Recall how DeFi TVL soared from $1 billion to $100 billion during the zero interest rate environment in 2020. While this rate cut cycle may not be as dramatic, the logic is similar.

Their technical architecture has been optimized, with $49.6 million in fees collected in Q4 and high utilization (although incentive programs have led to accounting losses, this is aimed at grabbing market share). Multi-chain deployment also diversifies risk, and the infrastructure is mature.

There’s a detail on derivatives: open interest is only $10-15 million, with one leading exchange at $4.9 million and another at $3.4 million, so liquidity is relatively low. Funding rates are neutral around 0.005%. The liquidation map shows a cluster of long positions above $1.25 and short positions below $1.18. In this low-liquidity environment, once a key level is breached, the price often moves more sharply than highly liquid tokens (short squeezes are easier).

If you want to participate, consider entering at the market price of $1.20 or set a limit order at $1.22 after a pullback. Set your stop loss at $1.18 (down 3.3%). First target is $1.25 (2.5% gain), second target is $1.30 (6.6% gain). Recommended leverage is 3-6x, with position size capped at 10% of your total funds, and holding period of 36-48 hours.

Risks must be noted: low liquidity is a double-edged sword, large orders may experience 1-2% slippage, so it’s best to scale in gradually. Also, while the protocol’s TVL is rising, it’s still operating at a loss, so keep an eye on upcoming tokenomics adjustments. If BTC drops below $88,000, remember to reduce your position.