Don’t miss this year-end blockbuster event—next Thursday (December 12) at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its final rate decision of 2025. This meeting is far from ordinary: among the 12 voting members, there are 5 dissenting votes and 3 people explicitly supporting a rate cut. Such division hasn’t been seen since 2019.

Key timing to remember: at 3:00 AM Thursday, the Fed will release its rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, followed by Powell’s press conference half an hour later. But note: on that day, major markets worldwide will be closed—US stocks, European stocks, Korean and Australian markets all shut, and CME’s precious metals, crude oil, forex, and equity index futures will also be paused. With liquidity dropping sharply, the crypto market may go to either extreme: either volatility will surge, or it will consolidate sideways.

The CME FedWatch tool shows an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. It looks certain, but there are three hidden traps:

**Record-breaking voting split:** Five dissenting votes mean the hawks are strong. Even if there is a rate cut, the statement likely won’t be too dovish and may even include “precautionary” warnings.

**Expectation gap is the real risk:** The market isn’t just pricing in “will they cut,” but “how many more cuts.” If Powell hints at just one cut next year while traders are betting on three, this mismatch could trigger major moves.

**“Buy the rumor, sell the fact” cycle repeats:** An 84% probability is already high, so the crypto market may have already priced in the positive news. When the decision is officially announced, profit-taking could lead to a sharp reversal.

Besides the Fed’s main course, several side dishes are worth watching: Tuesday brings the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision and a speech by the governor, which could warm up market sentiment; Wednesday features the US labor cost index and the Bank of Canada’s decision, both relevant to inflation pressure and the pace of global easing; Friday sees the Fed’s household financial data release, plus speeches from three 2026 voting members, which could reveal policy direction for next year.

This event isn’t just about year-end positioning—it’s a prelude to setting the tone for 2026. Set your alarms—don’t sleep through it.