#美国经济指标分析 Seeing the latest statements from Federal Reserve Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly, it does seem that the US economic situation is indeed not optimistic. Rising unemployment and a fragile job market both suggest that monetary policy may be overly tightened. From on-chain data, there are indeed signs recently of funds flowing out of risk assets.

However, I take a cautious view toward Waller’s opinions. He is considered a representative of the "rate cut faction" under Trump, so his remarks may be somewhat biased. In contrast, Daly's views are more noteworthy. She believes the risk of a deteriorating job market outweighs the risk of rising inflation, and there may be more data to support this judgment.

If there is really a rate cut in December, it could trigger a shift in market sentiment. It is recommended to closely monitor on-chain fund flows and the activity of large addresses to assess the impact of rate cut expectations on the crypto market. At the same time, be cautious—if the rate cut is less aggressive than expected, it could lead to short-term volatility.