2025-12-07 07:22:36

I always see people asking: Why did the price suddenly surge this time? It was fine just now—why did it crash again? Is there some big news?

To be honest, news is just a scapegoat. Whether it’s a Fed rate cut or an ETH upgrade, these factors can indeed stimulate the market in the short term, but if you really want to figure out where the trend is headed, you still have to look at the charts themselves. The candlesticks don’t lie.

Let’s start with the daily chart—the current rebound is pretty much running out of steam. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is pressing downward, the middle band is also sinking, and the price is hovering near the middle band. MACD bullish momentum is clearly fading, and the KDJ lines are sticking together, forming a downward dead cross. Switching to the weekly chart, both the middle and lower bands are opening downward, the price is currently hovering around the lower band for a correction, and the MACD bearish bars are still expanding.

These technical indicators are sending a clear message. But even more important is the structure—from a macro cycle perspective, BTC has pulled back from the 126200 top to where it is now, still following a pattern of rallying then falling, and is currently in the third descending channel.

First channel: the bottom was at 103470, the rebound peaked at 116380, forming a standard downtrend. After testing the bottom support twice, the price broke down on the third attempt, destroying the channel structure.

Second channel: the bottom support lifted to 98888, with the rebound high around 107470. Same script—two tests of the bottom, then...

Now we're in the third channel. If you think about this rhythm, doesn’t it look familiar?

ETH-1.02%

BTC-1.55%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

6 Likes

Reward
6
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LiquidityWitch

· 11h ago

Here we go again. Two tests break the level, then the third time smashes right through. The pattern is so damn consistent.

View OriginalReply0

SnapshotBot

· 12-07 07:49

Bro, this analysis is spot on. I’ve gone through those three confirmed breakdowns, and with the bottom rising again and again, it just means the bears aren’t done yet.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletGuardian

· 12-07 07:48

Oh man, they're starting to talk about channels again. I've been seeing this routine for almost a year now. Wait a minute, why is the bottom number 98888 so round? Are we sure this wasn't manipulated? News is just a scapegoat, seriously, even the Fed can't take the blame for this. Candlestick charts don't lie, but retail investors usually end up lying to themselves when reading them. Three tests and it breaks through directly—sounds scary, but the bottom support is rising too. Isn't that a good sign? When it broke downward, where did it go, ninety-five thousand or ninety thousand? Honestly, I can't quite remember. If this really is the third channel, does that mean we're about to repeat the two tests and a crash scenario again? I'll bet five bucks on it. It's so annoying when the price keeps grinding at the middle Bollinger Band. I just want it to drop or pump already—why all the stalling? Damn, the MACD bearish bars keep expanding, so this is basically telling us it's not over yet?

View OriginalReply0

ChainSauceMaster

· 12-07 07:44

Ah, got it. It’s the old script again: two tests, then a breakout on the third try.

View OriginalReply0

RetailTherapist