[Market Manipulation Theory] Why is BTC like a shakeout?

┈┈➤ Kezhou: Almost identical to April-June 2021

Looking at the BTC monthly chart, this October-December is just too, too similar to April-June 2021.

In contrast, it's nothing like November 2021 to January 2022.

Of course, this logic isn’t as simple as Kezhou makes it out to be.

┈┈➤ The logic behind: The difference between distribution and shakeout

When the main force ( whales ) distribute, they should theoretically distribute gradually, because gradual distribution lets retail investors take over.

But creating panic by dumping quickly works even better—especially when dumping to the bottom, retail investors are less likely to buy and might even sell.

2021 is the best example: April-June 2021 and November 2021-January 2022 were two completely different patterns.

┈┈➤ Gaming market expectations: Four-year cycle and rate cut cycle

╰┈✦ Dumping at the end of the four-year cycle has a better effect

Especially when paired with the bull market ending of the four-year cycle, the effect is better.

You have to know, almost everyone knows about the four-year cycle now. Everyone’s bought all sorts of coins waiting for a pump, so if the main force ( whales ) pumps the market, wouldn’t they become the bag holder??? They’re not stupid!

So dumping now makes most people think the bull market is over, maybe even cut their losses and exit. Then pumping it back up, causing some people to FOMO in—that should be the normal thought process for the main force ( whales ), right?

╰┈✦ Welcoming the liquidity easing cycle

Especially knowing that the Fed will officially enter an easing cycle in 2026 ( intermittent rate cuts are also an easing cycle, because QT will have completely stopped, and when rates get even lower, liquidity will be even looser ), which doesn’t match a bear market environment.

So dumping fast is, on one hand, to cause panic selling among retail so that the main force can accumulate. On the other hand, it lets the bear market end quickly, so a new round of easing can be welcomed.

┈┈➤ Final thoughts

Of course, don’t be too optimistic about rate cuts. Most likely rate cuts in 2026 won’t be continuous, but rather on and off, so even though it doesn’t fit a big bear market, it doesn’t seem to fit a big bull either. Especially for altcoins—without the crazy liquidity of 2021, there’s not much chance for alts. Maybe only a few coins will do well.

Finally, let me say, Brother Bee’s analysis isn’t necessarily correct. His strength is strong logic, but the downside is often not considering all factors and easily overlooking things. It’s just written as it’s thought; everyone’s welcome to discuss.