#美联储重启降息步伐 That bullish candle on $BTC last night looked strong, but actually had a lot of fluff.

I closed my short position ten minutes in advance—not out of luck, but for a straightforward reason: the price shot up fast, but the trading volume didn’t keep up at all. With this kind of move, you can basically conclude: either it was a short squeeze from forced liquidations, or last Monday’s plunge cleared out the overhead selling pressure, making it easy for the price to jump up. To put it bluntly, this isn’t the start of a real bull market—it’s a structurally passive rally.

So what’s next? I’ll give you two scenarios:

First, if it breaks above 93880, then take the rebound seriously. The target range would be around 99 to 100. If the daily structure holds steady near 94, it’s basically confirmed to be the main upward phase of a significant rebound. If $BTC starts pulling up in a “vampire” fashion, altcoins may get drained.

Second, if it can’t break the key level, then we’ll see continued consolidation. After more than a month of consecutive declines, past experience says we usually enter a period of directionless consolidation. Don’t go all in during this stage—some small-cap coins might even surprise you.

The reason I closed my position early is because that candle on December 2, with a wick down to 84K and a quick recovery, was textbook—a standard inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The market speaks for itself; I just understood what it was saying.

My thought process is laid out here. What you do next is up to you.