#数字货币市场回调 Alarm sounded: $BTC fell below the 86,000 mark, touching a low of 85,604. There is a bigger bomb hidden behind this big dump. A $14 trillion scale carry trade is brewing a systemic collapse. Is it the right time to buy the dip? The probability of becoming a dumb buyer is high.

The Bank of Japan is serious about it. The probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 76%, and in January it is as high as 90%. The governor has already sent clear signals. Government bond yields have reached a new high since 2008, with inflation pressures combined with the continuous depreciation of the yen, making a policy shift a certainty. The question arises – those arbitrage players who previously leveraged dollar assets with low-interest yen are now collectively hitting the brakes.

The logic of carry trade is very simple: borrow cheap yen, exchange it for dollars to invest in $BTC and US stocks to profit from the difference. However, interest rate hikes mean skyrocketing borrowing costs, and this capital must be reversed—selling assets to buy back yen for debt repayment. Global liquidity is instantly drained, with the crypto market being the hardest hit. With less money, assets are sold off first, and investors begin to turn to stable targets like government bonds. The narrative of BTC as "digital gold" instantly loses its luster, and the financing environment for the entire industry worsens.

The data is more intuitive. In the past 24 hours, mainstream cryptocurrencies have generally fallen more than 5%, with liquidations surpassing 400 million USD. Looking back at November, BTC plummeted from 126,000 to around 80,000, a drop of over 20%, with ETF funds net outflowing 3.5 billion USD, and a single-day liquidation record reaching 900 million USD. Now, leveraged long positions are being forcibly liquidated, whales are selling off, a death cross is appearing on the technical charts, and market sentiment is extremely fragile; just one piece of bad news could trigger a stampede.

Don't think about buying the dip in the short term. Before the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, market fluctuations will only become more intense. In the medium term, we need to watch the Federal Reserve's attitude; if there is a rate cut in December, it may open up a rebound window, while not cutting rates would mean a double blow. In the long term, there is no need to panic excessively; after the interest rate hike cycle in 2024, BTC is likely to refresh its historical high within three months, but the core task right now is to survive. Focus on three key time points: the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, the Federal Reserve decision in mid-December, and Japan's possible rate hike in January 2026. During this period, strictly control your positions and avoid going all in.