#美SEC推动加密创新监管 Recently, the big dump of the yen may bring a significant shock to the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $BNB

Let me mention something that many people don't know: Japan's loan interest rates are so low that it's almost free money. A large amount of global capital borrows yen to invest in stocks, real estate, and, of course, cryptocurrencies. This strategy is called carry trading—borrowing low-interest currency to earn high yield spreads. But now there are rumors that Japan may raise interest rates. What happens if this becomes true? The money that has been borrowed will quickly flow back, and risk assets will be the first to suffer.

Just looking at a set of numbers makes it clear how serious this situation is: the global financial market is approximately $44 trillion, while the cryptocurrency market is only $3 trillion. The disparity in scale is evident, and the possibility of crypto being impacted is very high. Some analyses suggest that BTC could directly surge to the $60,000-$70,000 range in a single candlestick, which sounds exciting, but behind it lies enormous uncertainty.

Data from December 1, 2025, shows that the USD/JPY has surged to around 156.25, with the yen depreciating by 10-12% from the beginning of the year, reaching the weakest level since 1990. Why has it fallen like this? Several reasons combined: high U.S. interest rates, low Japanese interest rates, and a significant interest rate differential; large scale of carry trades; Japan's continued loose monetary policy and high debt, with market expectations for fiscal stimulus; soaring costs of energy and raw material imports; and crucially, large institutions and hedge funds are aggressively shorting the yen, with algorithmic trading further amplifying the volatility.

The depreciation of the yen has indeed brought benefits to Japanese export companies and the tourism industry. However, on the flip side, import costs have soared, putting pressure on the living standards of ordinary people, squeezing corporate profits, and accumulating fiscal risks for the government. Although the Bank of Japan has attempted foreign exchange intervention, which can stabilize things in the short term, high debt levels limit their ability to take more aggressive measures.

What does the future hold? It's hard to say. It could rebound or continue to weaken, depending on the global economic trends and capital flows. But one thing is certain: the sharp fluctuations of the yen will directly impact the cryptocurrency market, and the market manipulation by large institutions will only amplify these fluctuations.

In the short term, the weak yen is beneficial for exports and tourism, but the pressure is accumulating for ordinary families, businesses, and crypto investors. Stay vigilant and don't get carried away by a one-sided market.