#ETH走势分析 After the Thanksgiving holiday, $BTC experienced a market trend that was hard to understand—reaching a high of $93,000 late at night on the 28th, which is more than a 16% increase from just over $80,000 at the beginning of the month. However, this high couldn't be maintained and quickly slid back down to around $90,175. During the Asian session on the 29th, it climbed back to $90,840, oscillating up and down as if gathering strength.

Interestingly, when the price is surging, the funding rates for contracts on major exchanges are negative. Some platforms even show a rate of -0.005%, what does this mean? Short sellers are paying long holders. From November until now, a thick stack of short positions has been built up in the 90K to 93K range; if the price really stands above 93K, will these positions be forced to close? It is worth observing.

Take another look at the leverage situation. In the past month, the open interest of the $BTC contract has decreased by almost 20%. Speculative funds have mostly withdrawn, leaving behind mostly low-multiples positions. The November data from CoinShares mentioned that although there were redemptions in ETFs, it seemed more like profit-taking, and institutional funds are actually still circulating in the market, with no signs of large-scale exits.

On-chain dynamics are becoming more intriguing: addresses holding between 100 and 1000 $BTC have seen a net inflow of approximately $1.3 billion in the past two weeks. At the most panic-stricken moment in the market, they are instead picking up goods. Historical experience tells us that such actions from "smart money" often imply something.

This position is quite awkward right now—spot demand has not stopped, and the negative funding rate is pressuring the shorts. If we can steadily stay above 93K in the next half month, the interest pressure on those short positions will turn into upward momentum, making 98K or even the 100K mark possible. Of course, there could also be another deep correction.

What do you think, brothers? Is this wave of fluctuations the final shakeout, or are the bears brewing a counterattack? How are your positions arranged?