According to the Halving cycle pattern, the 18th month is often the peak of the bull run. If this pattern still holds, then October will be the highest point of this cycle—BTC reached a historical high of 126,200 USD on October 7.

The next phase might be a bear market lasting up to 12 months. Considering the brutal extent of the last bull run where BTC plummeted by 77%, even if we don't see the same drop this time, it is highly likely that it will fall below the 2021 high of 69,000 USD. I personally predict that the lowest point will occur at the end of 2026, with a price range between 30,000 to 60,000 USD.

Why do you say that? The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and is expected to end its balance sheet reduction this year, but this does not change the underlying logic of the Halving four-year cycle. The 18th month after the Halving on April 20, 2024, corresponds exactly to this cycle's peak of $126,200.

The math problem is simple: If BTC can only reach below 200,000 USD at most (I don't think it can break 200,000 this round), but the bear market will drop below 60,000, would you choose to chase the high or wait for the crash?

I have already been liquidated and exited the market, now I'm hoping for a reversal with perp. However, my strategy is very clear: wait patiently for the panic index to drop below 10 before going all in. By the end of 2026, when the market is in extreme panic and BTC falls back to the $30,000 - $60,000 range, it will be the golden moment to buy the dip.

Always be optimistic, always be confident. But also respect the cyclical规律.