How are you guys doing? The US Non-farm Payrolls data in the early morning really ignited market sentiment - the US September NFP unexpectedly increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000, and also much stronger than the revised previous value of 22,000. The unemployment rate even rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4%, reaching a new high since 2021.

Why is this data so important? Because it directly brings the question of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December back into the chaotic zone.

On one side, there is a Rebound in employment and strong economic resilience; the "unexpectedly good" performance of the U.S. labor market will lead the hawks within the Fed to continue their rhetoric—now is too early to cut interest rates, risking another surge in inflation. On the other side, the unemployment rate continues to rise, and economic pressures are gradually becoming apparent, with doves believing that interest rate cuts are necessary to support the market. The policy divergence is rapidly widening.

Moreover, the situation is more complicated: the U.S. government shutdown has led to interruptions in the regular economic data, and this Non-farm Payrolls report is the first "official health indicator" after the shutdown, carrying more weight than usual. Additionally, the Labor Department announced this month that the October employment report will be combined with the November report—meaning that the "data reference frame" for the market will become increasingly scarce in the coming weeks.

From the market reaction, US Treasury yields and the dollar index have shown significant two-way fluctuations, with traders fully engaging in the speculation of interest rate cuts. Risk assets may face greater volatility in the short term, especially during times of unstable liquidity and unclear direction.

Overall, this Non-farm Payrolls report is neither bearish nor bullish, but rather another strong stimulus in the "undetermined direction era." In the coming days, the market will engage in a new round of tug-of-war over whether interest rates will be cut in December. For traders: this is both an opportunity and a trap. Managing positions well is more important than determining the direction.

The cryptocurrency market is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. Investors participating in cryptocurrency investments should fully understand the associated risks, remain calm and rational, and respond to market changes with a prudent strategy.