On November 14th, #美国终止政府关闭 fell below the $100,000 mark, hitting a low of around $95,800. This position is just near the low point of the severe fluctuation on October 11th. The market stands at a crossroads again: is it time to buy the dip, or should we continue to remain cautious?

Looking back at the trends of the past few months, the trajectory has actually become quite clear. Starting from above 123,000, the market began to show signs of a peak. Subsequently, it fell below 110,000, and the turning point was basically confirmed. As the price further lost the 100,000 mark, the shadow of a bear market became increasingly pronounced. Historical experience tells us that the closer we get to 2026, the heavier the chill in the market may become.
From the historical peak to now, $BTC has retraced more than 30,000 points. This is not just the predicament of mainstream coins—$BTC is also under significant pressure. As for altcoins? That's even more needless to say. As early as the second half of 2024, there were voices pointing out that "the altcoin season may not return," which many people scoffed at at the time. But looking back now, the facts are clear.
So, what should we do if it falls below 100,000?
First, let's look at the monthly chart: A large bearish candle has directly penetrated the MA5 and MA10 moving averages, while also breaking through the support of the October low. The bearish pattern remains evident, and the downward space may extend to the 88,000 to 90,000 range.
Looking at the weekly chart: three consecutive large bearish candles have broken below the lower Bollinger Band, forming a typical "bearish cannon" pattern. This technical structure often indicates the possibility of further downward movement.
Daily level: After peaking this week, it has closed in the red for four consecutive trading days, with intensity even stronger than short sellers. Especially after breaking below the psychological level of 100,000, the impact on market sentiment should not be underestimated. In the short term, 100,000 may become a new resistance level.
Although the expected 98,000 was easily surpassed by the actual trend yesterday, this does not change the overall judgment. This wave of decline may extend to the range of 93,000 to 95,000, followed by a weak rebound, and ultimately continue to buy the dip.
After a significant fall, there will definitely be a rebound; this is the norm of the market. But remember one thing: before the bear market pattern changes, each rebound may not be a buy the dip signal, but rather an opportunity to reassess your positions. Staying calm is more important than being eager to act.
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