Based on the analysis of data and indicators, here are the potential scenarios and the success rate of each:

📊 The main scenarios and success rates

🎯 Scenario One: Healthy Rebound (Success Rate: 65%)

· Description: Rebound from the support area 105,500-105,800
· Engines:
· RSI is in the oversold area (18.3-21)
· Strong buy orders at 105,500
· The convergence of moving averages for support
· Targets: 107,000 → 107,800 → 108,500
· Duration of the transaction: 1-3 days

⚠️ Scenario Two: Sideways Consolidation (Success Rate: 25%)

· Description: Sideways trading between 105,500 and 107,000
· Engines:
· The balance of power between buyers and sellers
· Decrease in trading volume
· Waiting for market catalysts
· Strategy: Range Trading (Range Trading)
· Duration of the transaction: Several hours to a day

🔻 Scenario three: Continued decline ( Success rate: 10% )

· Description: Breaking support at 104,800 and further decline
· Engines:
· Strong selling pressure (57.22% Sell)
· MACD breakout to negative levels
· Loss of trust in the market
· Targets: 104,200 → 103,700 → 103,000

📈 Factors to Enhance Success Rate

Pros:

· ✅ RSI at extreme levels of overbought
· ✅ Strong support at 105,500 with a volume of 671.6K USDT
· ✅ The convergence of moving averages for support
· ✅ Oversold indicators on multiple timeframes

Risks:

· ❌ Seller dominance at 57.22%
· ❌ Strong short-term downward trend
· ❌ Need a positive catalyst to break resistance

🎯 Final Recommendation:

The perfect deal: Buy at 105,600-105,800
Stop Loss:104,700
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5
Overall success probability: 70-75%

Monitoring: A breakout of 107,000 confirms the bullish scenario, while a breakout of 104,800 cancels the trade.$BTC