October 4th Kunpeng: The underlying logic of the market has changed, if you don't understand these, you will miss the overall picture.

The recent cryptocurrency market has probably made many people feel "aesthetic fatigue"—the market keeps rising and falling, and volatility has become the norm, even the anticipation of monitoring the market has decreased. Some people are starting to waver: has this bull market quietly come to an end? But the truth may be more complex than you think: the current "calm" is not the end of the market, but rather a "gear-shifting period" when the underlying engine of the market is switching. The old rules are becoming ineffective, and new strategies have emerged. If you still cling to past experiences and wait passively, you might miss the most critical market movements ahead. Today, let's break down the core logic of this market, helping you to see the main players' actions and seize the core opportunities in the second half of the bull market.



1. The old formula "halving = bull market" should be discarded! What we are looking at now is this.

In the past few years, "Bitcoin halving" has almost been a "faith-level indicator" in the crypto space—each halving seems to trigger a wave of bull markets. But now, this formula needs to be updated: with over 95% of Bitcoin already mined, relying solely on "supply reduction" to drive a trillion-dollar market is rapidly losing its influence. The true core driving force behind this bull market has long switched to "global macro liquidity."



1. New Logic: Liquidity is the "engine" of the market.

Compared to the short cycles within the cryptocurrency space, what should be focused on now are the actions of global central banks—each interest rate cut and each round of M2 money supply growth essentially adds "ammunition" to scarce assets like Bitcoin. For example: when central banks release liquidity, there is more "idle money" in the market, and a portion of that capital will flow into assets like Bitcoin that can withstand inflation, driving up prices. At this time, paying attention to "halving" is less important than monitoring global monetary policy, as the latter is the key factor in determining market trends.



2. Under two types of economic differentiation, the role of Bitcoin has changed.

The current global economy has actually been divided into "two worlds":

- **Asset Holder Economy**: Wall Street institutions and high-net-worth individuals rely on holding assets like stocks and Bitcoin, allowing their wealth to grow like a snowball;

- **Fiat Currency Economy**: The cash and savings that most ordinary people hold are continuously "shrinking" under the influence of inflation.



The value of Bitcoin is being redefined in this differentiation—it is no longer just a speculative tool, but rather a "decentralized option" for ordinary people to resist the devaluation of fiat currency. With no entry barriers and not controlled by a single institution, this attribute makes its "anti-inflation narrative" more persuasive than ever.



3. Institutional Entry: Bitcoin Crosses the Threshold of "Long-Term Existence"

BlackRock has launched a Bitcoin ETF, which brings not just hundreds of billions of dollars in funds, but more importantly, a "legitimacy endorsement." This means that Bitcoin has transitioned from a "niche investment" to an asset that sovereign wealth funds and large institutions can publicly allocate—equivalent to crossing a long-standing threshold, leading to a wider future entry channel for capital and stronger stability.



2. Beneath the seemingly "boring" market conditions lie three key signals.

If the macro logic feels too distant, we can find more intuitive answers from market data - the current "consolidation" is actually a "preparation period" before the market explodes.



1. Volatility hits a low: like a spring compressed to the limit.

The current volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to a historic low, and the market seems "quiet", but in fact, it is accumulating energy. It's like a spring compressed to its limits; once released, there could be severe fluctuations beyond expectations. Historically, many market trends have shown that after extreme low volatility, a significant market movement often follows.



2. Long-term holders "lock-up": smart money is quietly accumulating coins

On-chain data provides a more direct answer: Bitcoin's "illiquid supply" (which refers to coins that are held long-term and not moved) has reached 14.3 million, accounting for 72% of the total supply, hitting a historic high. This indicates that the real "smart money" has not exited due to volatility; instead, they are quietly accumulating coins—their steadfastness is, in fact, the "ballast" for the market.





3. Three "epic signals" have appeared. Is the second half of the bull market coming?

If the previous part is the "paving", then the next three signals are more like the "assembly call" for the market to start—each of them has been validated for effectiveness in historical markets.



Signal 1: Bitcoin dominance reversal, the altcoin season is coming.

The weekly EMA Ribbon of Bitcoin's dominance has shown a "bearish reversal" signal—indicating that altcoins will start to outperform Bitcoin. It is important to note that this signal appears only once in each cycle, and in the past, every occurrence has initiated a grand "altcoin season"—funds will flow from Bitcoin to quality altcoins, bringing about a wave of "blossoming" market conditions.



Signal 2: TOTAL3 breaks historical high, funds are already in action.

TOTAL3 (the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has quietly surpassed its all-time high. This metric is more real than just "hype" - it indicates that the rotation of capital is not "about to happen," but has "already happened." A large amount of capital is flowing into altcoins, "warming up" for the upcoming market.



Signal Three: BTC and ETH are building momentum, with clear targets.

- **Bitcoin**: It is forming a "reverse head and shoulders" bullish pattern, which is a typical bottom reversal signal. Once it breaks through the neckline at $117,000, the next target will be to challenge the historical high;

- **Ethereum**: A "symmetrical triangle" formation has formed below the historical high, which is the "energy accumulation phase" before the market outbreak. Once the triangle range is broken, it is likely to surge towards the 5000-8000 USD range.





A final reminder: when the "newbies" around you start discussing "which altcoin can multiply by 100 times," it's time to be cautious—this is likely a signal that the market is nearing its peak. At this point, you should gradually convert the gains from altcoins back to Bitcoin or stablecoins, and avoid being the "last buyer."



The current market is like standing at the crossroads of "old and new logic"—those who focus on old patterns may feel "lost," while those who understand the new logic can seize opportunities. Short-term fluctuations are not risks, but rather the last chance for those who are prepared to "get on board." Remember, the core of this bull market is "cognitive difference": the deeper your understanding, the higher the returns you can capture. Maintain independent thinking and make proper arrangements to stand firm in the upcoming market conditions.