🔝 : Fed rate cut ≠ Market rally

Today at 3:00 PM ET the Fed will announce its rate decision. AA 0.25% cut is expected most likely — futures put the probability at 90%. This would be the first rate cut since December 2024.

❕ What to understand

The market has already “priced in” this move: the S&P 500 is up 6% in recent weeks, and 10-year Treasury yields have dropped almost 40 bps.

That’s why a simple cut is unlikely to spark another rally — all eyes will be on Powell’s comments.

🔥 The key focus

Powell’s press conference will decide the market’s reaction:

+ Postive: If he hints at a series of cuts this year, markets could hold near or break new highs.

- Negative: If he stresses caution and the need to watch other economic data, profit-taking and a pullback after the “expectations rally” are likely.