Macro Crypto Update

Global Overview
As geopolitical tensions rise—from Israel-Iran conflicts to intensifying US-China friction—Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a macro hedge. With volatility in bond markets and fiat currencies, institutional demand for BTC has increased notably.

North America
The U.S. Treasury is cracking down on crypto-laundering operations linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, marking a tougher stance on illicit financial flows. Meanwhile, under Trump-aligned crypto policies, the idea of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” is gaining traction, with states like Arizona exploring pro-BTC laws.

Europe
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) reported that only 40 out of 138 jurisdictions are compliant with crypto standards. Over $51 billion in crypto was found in illicit wallets last year, much of it linked to North Korea and terrorist groups. Still, the EU’s MiCA regulation—active since December 2024—sets a clearer framework, though ESMA has warned of crypto’s speculative risks.

Asia
China continues to enforce a strict ban on crypto trading and mining since 2021 while accelerating its rollout of the digital yuan. India is reviewing its crypto stance in light of global regulatory shifts but still imposes high taxes and regulatory uncertainty. In contrast, countries like Singapore and Japan are moving forward with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

Latin America and Others
El Salvador now holds over 6,100 BTC in national reserves and continues to support mining. Bhutan, surprisingly, is leveraging hydroelectric power to mine Bitcoin, with BTC holdings equivalent to 28% of the country’s GDP.

Macro Trends & Global Impacts
Monetary supply (M2) is rising, and interest rate volatility is fueling capital flight into crypto assets. Countries with fully licensed crypto regimes have significantly lower levels of illicit crypto activity. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that the global economy is at a pivotal moment—trade disputes, inflation, and stablecoin expansion demand close scrutiny.