Former Federal Reserve officials predict a rise in both inflation and unemployment, with only one interest rate cut expected this year.

On June 17, a survey conducted by Jon Hilsenrath, a former economics reporter for The Wall Street Journal, gathered the views of former Federal Reserve officials and staff on the U.S. economy and the outlook for the Federal Reserve. The former officials and staff expect that the unemployment rate and inflation rate will rise in the coming months, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s judgment in interest rate decisions. Respondents indicated that they expect the Federal Reserve to maintain expectations of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, although many former officials believe that a single rate cut or even no cut at all might be more appropriate.

The results of this survey are released just as the Federal Reserve is about to hold its policy meeting this week, during which Federal Reserve officials will announce economic forecasts. This will be the first economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve since Trump’s announcement of a large-scale import tariff policy. The federal budget bill currently progressing in Congress may also become one of the important considerations for the Federal Reserve’s decision this week.