In the dynamic, my frens often ask if ETH is worth it now? What price would be more appropriate to buy?

I just happened to see some information, and I am sharing it for everyone's reference. Based on on-chain data, we can refer to two key indicators to assist in judgment: ETH Realized Price and the cost price of ETH 2.0 staking.

In simple terms, the Realized Price (blue line) is the weighted average price of all ETH at the last movement in the market, representing the overall cost on the chain. The staking cost (red line) is the weighted price of all ETH deposited into the beacon chain at the time of staking, which serves as the cost basis for stakers.

As of now, the staking cost line for ETH is $2,387, and the Realized Price is $2,023. Historically, the price has often found support near the red line, and once it falls below that line, it means that many stakers are in a state of unrealized losses, which tends to lead them to continue locking in or increasing their positions, thereby reducing selling pressure in circulation.

What is more noteworthy is the blue line: when the ETH price is below the Realized Price, most on-chain chips are at a loss, and this range is often the "bottom accumulation zone" that value players focus on. Looking at the market trends since 2016, as long as you gradually build positions below the blue line and hold for the long term, the probability of making a profit is extremely high.

Here are the trend data after the price broke through the Realized Price a few times:

📉 August 2018: The blue line dropped from $325 to $85, a maximum drawdown of 74%;
📉 July 2019: Blue line $236, dropped to $121, a pullback of 49%;
📉 March 2020: The blue line dropped from $210 to $110, a 47% retracement;
📉 June 2022: The blue line dropped from $1,702 to $993, a 42% retracement;
📉 November 2022: Blue line $1,522, fell to $1,099, a retracement of 28%;
📉 March 2025: Blue line $2,034, dropped to $1,472, a pullback of 27%.

We can see that as the market capitalization of ETH increases, the occurrence of extreme pullbacks is gradually weakening. In the early days, such as in 2018, the maximum drawdown could reach 74%; however, in the past three years, the maximum drop has been controlled to within 30%, and the pullback duration has also been shorter.

This reflects a trend: more and more institutions and long-term holders are compressing the circulating supply through staking and other methods, reinforcing the bottom support for prices.

In summary, when the ETH price falls to or even below the Realized Price line, it often represents a highly cost-effective buying zone. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, over a longer period, these positions have a very high potential for returns.