Based on the latest market conditions on May 3, 2025 (current price 1,834.35 USD, BOLL middle band 1,838.55, upper band 1,845.44/lower band 1,831.66, combined with MACD and market sentiment, the following 1-hour precise strategy is formulated.

Core Strategy and Levels
1. BOLL middle band breakout, try going long
- Entry conditions: Price stabilizes at $1,838.55 (middle band of BOLL), 1-hour closing price confirms the breakout, and MACD bars turn red (DIF crosses above DEA).
- Target: Short-term outlook towards $1,845-$1,857 (BOLL upper band + previous high resistance), looking at $1,872 after breaking through.
- Stop loss: dynamically moved down to below $1,831.66 (BOLL lower band), risk ≤2%.
2. Lower band supports rebound to go long
- Entry conditions: Price stabilizes in the range of 1,830-1,831.66 USD (BOLL lower band + MACD bottom divergence), combined with RSI < 30 or increased trading volume.
- Target: Bounce to $1,838-$1,845, take partial profits after breaking the middle band.
- Stop loss: Strictly set below 1,825 USD to guard against breakout risk.
3. Upper band suppression short selling
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to 1,845-1,857 USD faces resistance (BOLL upper band + previous high suppression), a 1-hour KDJ death cross or a long upper shadow appears.
- Target: Retrace to $1,831-$1,838*l (middle band support), if broken look for $1,808 (daily EMA60).
- Stop loss: Set above $1,860 to avoid false breakouts.
Key signals and
- MACD Momentum: The current DIF(-1.66) is converging with DEA(-1.37). If the histogram turns red, it indicates a short-term strength, otherwise, it may fall below the lower band or accelerate downward.
- Long and short distribution: Bulls account for 56.61%, but bears account for 43.39%, indicating divergence; caution is needed against potential manipulation by major players.
- Volume validation: If the trading volume is below 100 million USDT when breaking through the middle band, be cautious about chasing the price upward; if the price breaks below $1,830 with increased volume, follow the trend and short.
Position and Discipline
- Total position: ≤40%, single leverage ≤2x (reduce leverage during high volatility).
- Stop-loss discipline: Exit immediately if it falls below $1,825 or if the MACD histogram continues to expand in negative values.
- Replenishment plan: If the price急跌至 1,808美元下方 (daily EMA60 support), reserve 15% of funds to gradually enter.
Summary
ETH is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations within the BOLL channel (1,831-1,845 USD), primarily adopting a channel strategy for the day. Break above the middle band with a light position to test long, and upon reaching the upper band, reverse to test short. Pay attention to the direction of the MACD histogram and the volume coordination, strictly set stop losses to avoid blindly opening positions in the consolidation zone. #BTC #PI #ETH #美联储5月利率预测 #五月行情预测