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Forecast conclusions and probability analysis for the short term (2023-2024):
BlackRock's application may face multiple rounds of delayed reviews by the SEC, but the probability of it ultimately being approved is high. Reasons include: BlackRock's political lobbying ability and its benchmark status in the industry.
The SSA protocol partially responds to the SEC's requirements for market surveillance.
Europe, Singapore and other regions have launched similar products, and the United States may loosen regulations to avoid falling behind.
Long-term (after 2025):
If the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework (such as legislation clarifying the status of Bitcoin) is gradually perfected, BlackRock's application may become a turning point, driving the process of digital asset securitization.