How will the expiration of options worth $8 billion affect the price of bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

Today is the expiration of Bitcoin options BTCUSD and Ethereum ETHUSD for a total amount of approximately $8.05 billion.

Let’s analyze how the expiration of options will affect the short-term price dynamics of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

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Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today

According to Deribit, today is the expiration date for 77,642 Bitcoin options contracts worth $7.24 billion. The maximum pain point for these contracts is at $86,000, and the put-to-call ratio is 0.73.

Today, 458,926 Ethereum options contracts are also expiring with a notional value of $808.3 million. The maximum pain point for ETH options is $1,900, and the put-to-call ratio is 0.74.

In options trading, the point of maximum pain refers to the price level at which cryptocurrency holders will incur the greatest losses. The put-call ratio assesses which sentiments prevail among investors. A higher ratio indicates that market participants are optimistic and are betting on the price increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to the theory of maximum pain points in options trading, cryptocurrencies often tend to move towards their strike prices, at which the largest number of contracts ( for both calls and puts ) expire worthless.

According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, BTC is trading at $93,471, while ETH is at $1,764.

Bitcoin will not rise to $100,000 by the end of April

According to Deribit, traders are actively selling fiat-backed put options on Bitcoin. Traders are using stablecoins to sell puts, locking in premiums and preparing to buy BTC on dips. This signals a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility.

“BTC traders on Deribit are showing confidence in the future by selling cash-secured put options and using stablecoins for potential purchases on dips,” Deribit said.

Analysts at Deribit note that the highest interest in BTC options is concentrated around the strike price of $100,000. The market expects a breakout above this level. However, on Polymarket, the probability of reaching this level in April is estimated at only 16%.

Another interesting observation: the cumulative delta (CD) for Bitcoin and related ETF options on Deribit reached $9 billion. While this indicates a high sensitivity to changes in BTC price, it also points to potential volatility. Market makers hedge their positions.

Crypto analyst Kyle Shasse notes that hedge funds never bet on the long-term price growth of Bitcoin. Instead, they extract risk-free returns through arbitrage. Once such opportunities disappear, they withdraw liquidity, intensifying BTC sell-offs.

Analysts at Deribit also note a surge in call option purchases on Bitcoin with expiration from April to June 2025. Investors are currently focusing on strikes in the range of $90,000 to $110,000. This optimism arose after the price of BTC surpassed $89,000.

The bullish market sentiment was likely driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO) after the price of BTC rose above $90,000. Experts emphasize the stabilizing effect of Trump’s cancellation of the tariff policy on April ninth. This reduced volatility in global markets and may have triggered a capital flow from gold to cryptocurrencies, supporting the recovery of the bitcoin price.

However, not all of the BTC growth was driven by the influx of new money. As noted by Tony Stewart from Deribit, half of the activity is related to the rollover of existing positions — this indicates strategic adjustments by traders.

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