From stocks to gold. How the correlation of Bitcoin with other assets has changed.

“RBC-Crypto” does not provide investment advice, the material is published solely for informational purposes. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

The correlation of Bitcoin (BTC) with gold is increasing, and the price of the coin may follow the price of the precious metal, notes CryptoQuant. After falling below $80 thousand in early April, the BTC rate recovered, and the current market situation contributes to further growth of the coin, analysts believe.

On April 22, the price of gold reached a historic high and for the first time exceeded $3500 per ounce. The precious metal has risen in price against the backdrop of increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven in part by the weakening dollar and market participants’ concerns about the consequences of trade wars.

The strengthening of Bitcoin, according to analysts at CryptoQuant, is due to the same factors. Firstly, the US dollar has weakened recently, and Bitcoin historically has an inverse correlation with it: when the dollar rises, Bitcoin weakens, and vice versa.

Secondly, after the tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump “scared the markets”, current events began to indicate a possible de-escalation of trade wars.

“Trump is clearly using tariffs as a political lever, which means that the final figures may turn out to be more moderate than expected,” experts say.

Negotiations are also underway for a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and if it is concluded, investors will gladly welcome it, according to the report. CryptoQuant believes that a potential de-escalation, as well as a reduction in uncertainty regarding tariffs, could significantly increase the value of volatile assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Analysts currently identify the most important trend as the decoupling of Bitcoin from stock market indices. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has clearly separated from both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, indicating a weakening correlation with traditional and tech stocks, according to the report.

At the end of 2024, the correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P 500 reached 0.88, and now it has decreased to 0.77. The correlation with the Nasdaq Composite has decreased from 0.91 in January to the current 0.83.

Interestingly, the correlation of Bitcoin with gold is increasing: from a coefficient of -0.62 at the beginning of the month to the current value of -0.31, according to CryptoQuant. Analysts explain that Bitcoin tends to follow the trajectory of gold with a delay of a couple of months.

“If we assume that the current change persists, then gold could serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin under otherwise equal conditions,” the experts conclude.

On April 23, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $94.5 thousand for the first time since early March, with a growth of 10% since the beginning of the week. Market participants’ expectations regarding the further dynamics of the asset are converging, and analysts surveyed by “RBC-Crypto” also believe that the price of BTC will rise.