XRP Critical Three Weeks: U.S. Senate Legislative Progress Could Decide Whether to Break Above $1.60 or Fall Below $1.20

Gate News update: XRP’s price is entering a critical policy window. Over the next three weeks, the U.S. Senate’s progress in advancing the “CLARITY Act” is seen as a core variable that will determine its 2026 trajectory. Currently, XRP is quoted at about $1.34. Although it has rebounded in the short term, it is still down more than 60% from the 2025 peak.

Although there has been progress on the regulatory front—U.S. regulators have classified XRP as a digital commodity—the market broadly believes that an interpretive classification alone is not enough to drive large-scale institutional capital to enter. Banks and asset managers care more about legal certainty, and the “CLARITY Act” is the key to providing this framework. Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill cannot be advanced to the full consideration stage before May, the likelihood of it passing within 2026 would drop significantly.

The time window has been compressed to mid-to-late April. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to review the bill after the reconvening, while signs of easing disagreements over stablecoin regulation have also emerged. Forecasts from the prediction market show that the probability of the bill passing within the year remains above 60%, but uncertainty still persists.

In an optimistic scenario, if the bill advances smoothly, the market expects it could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in potential capital inflows. Combined with the expansion of ETF channels, it may push XRP above $1.60 and extend into higher ranges. Institutional capital entering the market would also reduce circulating supply, thereby strengthening price elasticity.

Conversely, if legislation is stalled, XRP’s performance will depend more on the broader macro environment and Bitcoin’s performance. If Bitcoin breaks below key support, XRP could fall to below $1.20, and in extreme cases could even test lower ranges.

At the current stage, policy progress has become the dominant variable, and April may be the key turning point for XRP’s full-year trend.