Goldman Sachs Warns of Strait of Hormuz Risks: Asia May Face Local "Oil Shortages" and Price Spikes

BlockBeats message, April 6: In its latest report, Goldman Sachs said that due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy transportation artery—is coming under pressure, and the global oil supply chain is facing extreme stress. The risk of localized “oil shortages” is rising.

Goldman Sachs analysis said that the shock is particularly evident in Asia. Multiple economies are highly dependent on energy imports from the Persian Gulf. In some countries, about 50% of fuel comes from that region, and countries such as South Korea and Singapore are even more dependent on the Middle East.

Although a global supply cutoff has not yet occurred, the buffers being maintained through measures such as inventory drawdowns, trade redirection, and export restrictions are weakening. Data show that in late March, Asia’s net oil import volume had already fallen sharply, reflecting that supply pressure is rising rapidly.

By product category, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have seen severe shortages due to tight inventories. At the same time, diesel and jet fuel prices have continued to climb, and combined with market stockpiling behavior, volatility has been further pushed higher.

Some countries have begun to show signs of fuel rationing or supply interruptions. India, Thailand, and other places have started taking intervention measures to respond.

Goldman Sachs emphasized that there is not yet a structural global supply crisis. However, if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz continue, localized energy shortages and a surge in oil prices will be exacerbated further, especially in regions with high levels of import dependency.