According to CoinWorld, monitored by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has invested $60.8K predicting that the U.S. military will enter Iran before April 30, with a current probability of 55%.
On March 17, Trump stated in an interview that he is “not afraid” to send ground troops and explicitly said he is different from previous presidents who promised never to deploy ground forces. Defense Secretary Hagel S. S. also clearly refused to rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops during a briefing at the Pentagon, emphasizing that the U.S. military is willing to take all necessary measures and stating that “we will never reveal the bottom line of our actions to the enemy or the media.”
As the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up global oil prices, analysts believe that if the U.S. military forcibly opens the strait, occupies Hark Island—which accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports—or controls underground high-enriched uranium facilities, airstrikes alone will be insufficient to achieve these goals. Ground forces will be necessary.
Additionally, multiple reports confirm that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground troops, including thousands of Marines heading to Middle Eastern waters aboard ships. Although the military is preparing options, Trump himself stated on March 19-20 that there is no clear decision yet to deploy ground forces, and he openly said that if troops are to be sent, “it will not be announced in advance.”
Furthermore, Trump has previously mentioned that relying on the current air and naval superiority is enough to destroy enemy defenses, and deploying ground troops might be a waste of time.
From a political perspective, a large-scale ground invasion could easily entangle the U.S. in a prolonged war, contradicting his campaign promise to keep America away from new conflicts in the Middle East. Once crossing the threshold of ground combat, there will be immense domestic public opinion and Congressional scrutiny.
Account: 0x340b374046d3e8d97da8d6c9b7fd6e4bf74d797b
Total Investment: $60.8K
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