Viewpoint: Four Reasons Why the BTC Bull Market Has Not Ended

Author: Lao Mao Source: X, @Imlaomao

Under the hammer of the big yin pillar at the weekly level, it is very dangerous to take out this milk.

Despite the fact that 99% of my content in the past 10 years has been emphasizing investing in Bitcoin, some people insist on extracting an additional one percent and levering themselves to death, then they say in the comments that they didn't get rich because they followed my advice.

So, I emphasize here that I am only talking about Bitcoin, only Bitcoin, and specifically Bitcoin stored scientifically and securely in my own cold wallet. It does not include any Bitcoin on any trading platform or Bitcoin contract positions, nor does it include any Bitcoin-related stocks or Bitcoin-related ETFs. There are no other altcoins, no Sol, no Eth, no Xrp, and no Ada. I do not touch these varieties, nor can I provide any advice. Is it clear enough?

In addition, my milk is given to the true Hodlers, who don't really need my milk. I give them this milk just as encouragement in difficult times, like giving a loving hug, not investment advice. For other experts who are capable of making money in waves or even bear markets, this milk is not suitable for you, please let it go.

Last time I wrote about Bitcoin, it was when Bitcoin dropped from over 60,000 to around 18888 US dollars. Some people may still remember what I wrote.

First, let me talk about my subjective feelings. Although there have been rumors that several legendary bigwigs and trading masters have cleared their bitcoins, it has nothing to do with me. I firmly believe that this bull market is not over. The reasons for this unreasonable belief are as follows:

1. Not crazy, if this is considered a bull market, then this TM is too rational and conservative of a bull market. According to today's coin price, although the annualized return of Bitcoin in the past 2 years has reached an astonishing 94%, according to Grok's analysis (as shown in the figure below), there are dozens of stocks that have achieved such an increase. The high-risk investment return of Bitcoin is only equivalent to a relatively good stock in the US stock market. As for other varieties, do you dare to call it a 'bull market'? For the first time, Bitcoin has become like a well-behaved stock, I won't say how high it can rise, but at least its decline will be limited. If you want to have a drink of mild milk, don't be too stimulating in the fall, it's also a kind of taste.

2. Although Wall Street took over, ETF went live, the power of the easing cycle has not yet been demonstrated, Bitcoin can be considered at most as a weak bull market, and easing is bound to be the main theme of the next fiscal policy of various countries. After enduring the dry spell, we will welcome a roaring bull market of overwhelming floodwaters, which is what Hodlers deserve.

3. Please be sure to correctly understand the meaning of the Trump administration's 'reserve' of cryptocurrencies. These two words, if not deeply understood, mean a lack of understanding. It is said that the gold reserve of the United States has remained unchanged for decades. If a considerable amount of Bitcoin is locked and not moving, given the current tradable quantity of Bitcoin, this is a major event. Just this event alone is enough to make recent fluctuations a small ripple on the future horizon. Once the US government starts to reserve, other countries are not foolish, and it is almost inevitable that they will gradually follow suit. Reserve policy only has a distinction between 'having' and 'not having', not a distinction in size. As long as there is a beginning, it becomes a reserve arms race, which is definitely a long-term competitive situation that has no end in sight. As an asset that the US government needs to legislate for reserve, Bitcoin's current market value is only equivalent to a single US stock. If the future market value is likely to remain at this level, no government will have a reserve requirement. The reason for the reserve is one and only one: to avoid losing the right to speak during the significant increase in the value of this asset. This is a reserve of power. You can say that Trump is a confused fool, but to believe that the behavior of the strongest country in the world is just a farce, that may be a little bit unserious.

4. Finally, the last point is that over the years, I have collected various bull market indicators with the goal of cycles. I dare not say that there is absolutely no element of clinging to the past in them, but I have tried my best to actively abandon the parts related to clinging to the past, even so, this lackluster bull market has only reached 30% of the reasonable space guided by comprehensive indicators. At this price, I don't know if it's just me who feels it's not worth selling. Even if I have to sell, it feels like selling at a low price. If I sell and don't have the confidence to buy back cheaper, so I can only Hodl. At the current price, please feel free to rise and fall.

Professional elevator manager for ten years, dressed in Chinese clothing, accompanying you, no complaints, no regrets.

Once again, it is reminded that all the above content is not investment advice. Please be responsible for your own losses and gains. I will actively V you 50: )

I do not promise anyone financial freedom, financial freedom is always a personal matter, relying on anyone else's views for investment will not end well.