Bloodbath in March, Bitcoin fluctuation falls below 82,000. Trump suddenly spoke up. Non-farm payrolls and Powell are gearing up to attack.

On Monday ( March 31, ), Bitcoin fell below $82,000. U.S. President Trump stated that he plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on "all countries," which overturned previous reports that he would limit measures on April 2. Looking ahead, the crypto market will closely monitor the non-farm payroll report ( NFP ) and the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech.

Trump said to reporters on Air Force One, "You will start with all countries, let's see what happens. I haven't heard rumors about 15 countries, 10 countries, or 15 countries."

Bloomberg reported that Trump is set to unveil what he calls reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which are central to his plans to rebalance global trade and promote American manufacturing, while collecting tariffs to fund his domestic policy priorities, including extending the tax cuts implemented during his first term and additional tax commitments made during the 2024 campaign.

The White House has not yet specified which tariffs will be imposed, how the tariffs will be calculated, and what measures countries need to take to obtain exemptions. Trump also stated that his tariffs will take into account the non-tariff barriers of other countries, but did not elaborate on how this will be calculated. The government also did not specify when these new tariffs will take effect.

He said: "We will be much better to them than they are to us, but it's a huge amount for the country."

Despite Trump signaling last Friday that he is open to negotiations with other countries regarding lowering reciprocal tariff rates, he simultaneously set a hard line: no agreements will be reached before the formal announcement on April 2. This statement has maintained a high level of uncertainty, making it difficult for the market to predict the final extent and impact of the shock.

This week welcomes a week full of uncertainty, as Trump's designated "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches, and risk aversion sentiment is strong. Last Friday, panic over tariff uncertainties had already struck Wall Street hard, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 700 points.

In addition to the U.S. equivalent tariffs, the U.S. March non-farm payroll report and Powell's speech to be released on Friday will also become key indicators for assessing the U.S. economy, inflation trends, and the future path of monetary policy.

According to the median forecast from a survey of economists by Reuters, the market generally expects that the United States will add 128,000 non-farm jobs in March. Although this figure shows a slowdown compared to the 151,000 increase in February, if it meets expectations, or even slightly exceeds them, it may still be enough to temporarily convince investors that the U.S. economy has a certain level of resilience to withstand current pressures; however, whether this puts pressure on the Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates is another matter.

On Friday, Powell will deliver a public speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Adding to market concerns are several recently released U.S. economic data, which seem to point towards a more difficult situation - stagflation, where economic growth stagnates or even declines while inflation remains stubbornly high.

If Powell's remarks at that time lean towards a hawkish stance, emphasizing the determination to combat inflation, it may suppress interest rate cut expectations and negatively impact the stock market; if his remarks lean towards a dovish stance, suggesting greater concern about economic downside risks, it may boost market sentiment, but it is still necessary to be vigilant about whether it will be seen as tolerance towards inflation.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Can the $80,000 Support Level Hold?

CryptoPotato stated that Bitcoin recently experienced a significant fall after a brief breakout above the 100-day moving average, indicating a false breakout and insufficient bullish momentum. The failure to break through further reinforced the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is approaching a rather significant support range, including the psychological price level of $80,000 and the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.5(84000 dollars )–0.618(78000 dollars ). This key area is expected to act as a support zone, potentially leading to a new consolidation phase around the $80,000 mark.

In light of these circumstances, Bitcoin may continue to fall to $80,000 in the short term, and the price trend will determine the next major move.

In the lower time frame, Bitcoin has encountered greater selling pressure at the upper boundary of its downward channel, resulting in a sharp fall. The price is currently testing the short-term support level of $83,000, which aligns with previous swing lows. Although there may be some buying interest at this level, the overall market conditions lack bullish momentum, and sellers remain dominant.

Therefore, Bitcoin may fall below $83,000 and move towards the channel midline of $80,000, which is a key turning point. Although it may support the price and initiate a consolidation phase, falling below this level could trigger a deeper decline towards the threshold of $77,000.

The interaction between the actual price of Bitcoin and the UTXO of long-term holders has always been a key indicator of market direction, as it represents the average acquisition cost of these holders. Bear markets typically begin when the price falls below the actual price of the 6-12 month group, indicating that these large investors will incur losses and may distribute.

Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is below the realized price of $88,000 for the 3-6 month group, but still above the realized price of $62,000 for the 6-12 month group. This indicates that, although the market is undergoing a deep adjustment, it is still too early to confirm that the bear market has begun.

Bitcoin may continue to correct and pull back within this range until new demand enters the market.

The level of 88,000 dollars remains a key threshold, and breaking this level may signal the beginning of a new upward trend.