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📖 Day 1 · Quiz (Single Choic
U.S. employment data "explodes": Trump has little time left.
"Wait till next year!" This slogan has been a rallying cry for all the losing teams from the minor leagues to the NFL since legendary sports journalist Grantland Rice first coined it over a century ago.
Now, U.S. President Trump has also joined this ranks.
In August, the U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs, far below economists' forecast of 76,500. In addition to the dismal number of new jobs, there are two other important reasons in the employment report released on Friday that are worth noting.
First of all, this is the first employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) since Trump fired the agency's director a month ago on the grounds of "data falsification." After the BLS revised down the employment figures for May and June, reducing the number of jobs by tens of thousands, Trump made the above accusations against the former director Erika McEntarfer.
The second reason, and likely the more important one, is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has repeatedly indicated that his concerns about the labor market outweigh his concerns about inflation.
Today, whether it's Main Street or Wall Street, all levels of the United States are dealing with the uncertainty brought about by tariffs and a series of other policies, and the central bank's focus on this issue has become increasingly tight.
On Thursday, Trump made it clear that he is not focused on the current data. He is more concerned about where his policies will take the labor market in the next 12 months.
"The real data I’m talking about, whatever it is, will be revealed in a year." Trump said to reporters during a briefing in the Oval Office of the White House.
He also added, "You will see unprecedented employment data from our country."
On Friday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick nearly echoed his remarks. In an interview with CNBC, he promised that the employment data this time next year would be "something you have never imagined."
The recovery of the labor market will undoubtedly be welcomed.
Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period, the average net new employment in the United States over the past three months has been 29,000, hovering at the lowest level in 15 years, while the official unemployment rate of 4.3% is also the highest since 2021.
The labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population that is employed or actively seeking work—has fallen to its lowest level since 1977 after excluding data from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although the Trump administration claims that increasing tariffs can create a significant number of manufacturing jobs, the sector has lost about 78,000 jobs this year, with 12,000 jobs lost just last month.
The data from August is not the endpoint of the current situation.
Next week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the benchmark revision results for employment growth data for the 12 months ending in March. Economists expect this revision could lower the total number of jobs by as much as 750,000.
In addition, the impact of the layoffs from the DOGE plan initiated by Trump and briefly led by Musk, which cut government positions, will begin to reflect in the wage data when the severance compensation plan expires at the end of September.
"The 'no hiring' economy is turning into a layoff economy, and if this situation worsens, it will lead to an economic recession," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "This trend must be curbed."
The Federal Reserve is likely to take more action. Traders have fully bet that policymakers will cut interest rates at the meeting on September 16 and 17. Wall Street also expects two additional rate cuts before the end of the year.
However, first of all, Trump must clarify his signature tariff policy. This largely depends on the Supreme Court, which will determine whether Trump has the authority to impose widespread tariffs.
However, the tariffs that are currently not under dispute, as well as those implemented during this ongoing legal dispute lasting several months, may still be reflected in the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August will be released next Thursday.
"Concerns about the economic health are beginning to surface. If next week's inflation data is strong, it could trigger a new round of panic about stagflation risks," warned Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Economic concerns do indeed exist, including a slowdown in hiring, accelerating inflation, and uncertainty regarding tariffs.
If the situation continues to develop like this, the White House needs to come up with a stronger response than "wait until next year!"