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SergioTesla

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SergioTesla

07-24 14:50

$BTC
Why taking the weekly high/low will most likely determine the direction for the remainder of the week (8 minute video)

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SergioTesla

07-18 07:58

We're entering the stage of the cycle where most people will start over-rotating their spot portfolio positions trying to maximize gains.
My spot strategy is simple: I will simply hold my current spot holdings until I sell them for fiat. No rotations.
I'm pretty sure that by the end of the cycle, this strategy will have outperformed 95% of people constantly rotating their spot positions.
Over-rotation is often a form of greed. A skilled few people will be able to do it very effectively, but for me I know small/micro caps are not my expertise.
So I'm staying in my lane and am more than happy w

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SergioTesla

07-15 19:12

$ETH
Weekly confidence targets in case the weekly low holds:
- 90% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3174
- 80% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3218
- 70% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3242
- 60% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3282
- 50% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3332

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SergioTesla

07-14 11:34

If you’re in our line of work - sitting behind a computer a lot - staying active is extremely important.
I’ve been working out almost every day for the last 6 years or so and happy to see it’s paying off.
Still room for improvement though so let’s get after it. Time to get my biological Whoop age down some more.

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SergioTesla

07-14 07:48

Another day where we can watch the bears stubbornly stick to their bias for lower even though the truth is obvious:
We’re in the middle of the next big impulse up.
GM bulls.

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SergioTesla

07-11 09:11

It's clear to me that there is still a lot of disbelief on this pump after going through my virtual rounds here on X.
Many are not exposed at all, calling this a fake FOMO pump, an obvious manipulation, and even adding to their underwater shorts.
I can't help but become even more bullish after reading all this. This is a great recipe for higher prices, as that is where max pain is.
Yes, you need to be bullish at lows and bearish at highs. But what most people don't understand is that there is also a time to be bullish at highs and bearish at lows.
I think the main reason so many are sidelined

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SergioTesla

07-11 08:31

$BTC
But as you know, I am bullish biased for this month (impulsive stage), which means I think the probabilities are even more skewed towards the bull case.
In case the monthly low holds (which seems likely), we see that:
- 90% of bullish months see enough bullish displacement to make it to 124k
- 80% of bullish months see enough bullish displacement to make it to 126k
- 70% of bullish months see enough bullish displacement to make it to 131k
The monthly low doesn't have a big wick (25th percentile of small wicks), which you usually see at big expansion candles.
All in all, I'm liking the odd

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SergioTesla

07-10 11:11

$BTC
- Only 9% of weeks reverse and take out the weekly low after putting in the weekly high this late
- 98% of bullish weeks see further bullish displacement
- 80% of bullish weeks would see enough displacement to make it to 115.9k

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SergioTesla

07-09 12:54

Not updating much because there’s not much to update. My main bias remains for higher prices to come on $BTC.
I’m usually most active with posts at HTF bottoms and at tops, because that’s where the work needs to done.
We’re now at the in-between stage; clearly left a HTF bottom but also clearly not at the next HTF top yet (according to my thesis, at least).
As someone who operates on higher timeframes, there is nothing to do during this stage but wait for the breakout impulse to start.
This is also why I post less during these periods, as nothing changes from a PA perspective and thus the name

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SergioTesla

07-09 11:44

It’s that part of the cycle where Bitcoin turns into a stablecoin.

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SergioTesla

07-03 17:29

$BTC
I am personally waiting for a bit lower prices on Bitcoin. I don't say that easily, as I think we are in that period where it pays much more to be a bull.
That means my HTF stance remains bullish but I see too many warning signs for lower in the immediate-term to ignore.
Let's start with the basics and some very simple TA: price is currently range bound and clearly in the premium area of the range.
Not only that, but price also hit a ndPOC at the top of the range. And as you can see, the previous 3 big bottoms/top were also after touching a ndPOC:
So then we can move on to the next part:

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SergioTesla

06-24 11:19

One simple truth most fail to grasp: Price leads, narrative follows.
If you don't understand it, you'll always be 2 steps behind.
Sentiment is most bearish at bottoms and most bullish at tops because narrative doesn't lead; it lags.

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SergioTesla

06-22 16:29

$BTC
Brace yourselves. 2021 top fractal posts incoming.

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SergioTesla

06-12 17:33

$BTC
Stats in action. 80% daily confidence target = 109485

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SergioTesla

06-11 13:56

It basically checks how far both bullish and bearish candles move for a given timeframe, and determines how likely certain levels are to be hit.
E.g. below we can see that if the weekly candle is bullish (weekly low gets put in first) on $BTC, 90% of weeks would see enough displacement to reach $ 111,684
If your TPs often get front run, this is very useful to, as it will statistically show you how many candles would actually reach your TP.
If this is only 20%, you might think twice about whether that's a good take profit level. Available for multiple timeframes.

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SergioTesla

06-11 11:54

$BTC
Quick video analysis with my views on the current PA, and what that means for the current day and week. I discuss:
- What you'd want to see in order to confirm the daily high will get taken
- What that would mean for the remainder of the week

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