Many people are asking about the rolling strategy—what kind of method is it that supposedly can make you rich. Here's the thing: rolling is basically trading with high leverage and continuously adding positions, but the risk is insane. The chance of losing could be 90-99%, no joke. If you invest 100U every day for a year, it could all be gone, totaling 36,500U. But supposedly, there's a chance to get 1-10 million dollars, several times the chance of 100 thousand, and dozens of profit opportunities multiple times over. Basically, you need to catch one of those many opportunities. So how does the rolling strategy work? For example, Bitcoin at 50K, you open a long perpetual with 1000U margin, leverage 50x. The position becomes 50kU. When profit hits 2%, the capital becomes 2000U, and you lower leverage to 30x. This process is repeated until leverage decreases and the safe range widens. Up to 30% gain, leverage drops to 5x, then a 19% decline can liquidate you. The concept is the more profit you make, the safer it is, but it’s still risky. To choose a coin, don’t pick small exchanges, afraid of manipulation. Large exchanges have better liquidity. Actually, Bitcoin is the safest because smaller coins are insanely volatile. There are coins that withstand crashes in bear markets, which is good—it means there are buyers. There are also sector-leading coins that are trending, which can rise quickly by 10% or more, helping to reduce leverage fast. Timing the entry has three methods. First, wait for a breakout from a long-range with high volume. Second, during a 10%+ crash in a bull market, usually the recovery is strong. Third, a minimal 20% rebound from the bottom, then wait for a breakout on the 4-hour or daily timeframe. This usually signals a new trend. From those who have succeeded big, they also use other methods, like holding very long if they believe in the coin, but taking profit when opportunities arise. But warning: if you play rolling, it’s heavy gambling—many profit but also lose because of greed. You need a strong mentality, ready for your money to go to zero multiple times. If you can’t handle the pressure, don’t try. Every time you add leverage, you give others a chance to take your wealth. In short, rolling is high risk, high reward—take profit when you’re already making big gains, don’t wait until everything becomes an illusion.

Recently, I’ve been thinking about a question: why do some events seem completely impossible to predict, yet can instantly change the entire market landscape? That’s exactly what makes black swan events so compelling. The concept of black swans actually comes from an interesting piece of history. In the past, Europeans believed all swans were white—until 1697, when Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia, overturning the entire belief. Later, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor at New York University, borrowed this story and wrote a book called *The Black Swan* to describe events that have a very low probability but lead to catastrophic consequences. Black swan events typically have three characteristics. First, they are extremely difficult to predict and fall outside normal expectations. Second, the consequences are severe; they can create major shocks to the economy and finance, and even to politics. Third, the interesting part is that after the event happens, we always seem to find explanations, as if everything could have been foreseen. Taleb once used a Thanksgiving turkey as an analogy, which really gets the point across. The turkey is fed every day, and after a while it believes that this kind of life will continue forever. As a result, only on Thanksgiving Day does it suddenly realize that everything has changed. Many of us are just like that turkey: simply because we’ve seen white swans, we assume black swans don’t exist. Just look at the black swan events that actually happened in history to understand how big this risk really is. The 2001 internet bubble: in the late 1990s, investors were wildly throwing money at tech companies, which ultimately caused the Nasdaq index to plunge by 78.4%, while the unemployment rate surged to 17.8%. Back then, no one thought it would turn out this bad. The 2008 financial crisis was even more of a textbook-level black swan event. Even later, when it came to it, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Greenspan, said he hadn’t expected a crisis like that to happen. In that crisis, the unemployment rate doubled, nearly 3.8 million homes lost their right of redemption, the investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt outright, and 25,000 people were laid off. Now, looking back, everyone can point to the loose lending policies in the subprime market as the culprit—but at the time, no one truly predicted it. The 2010 flash crash is also very representative. A British futures trader, Navinder Sarao, by manipulating automated trading algorithms, made the stock market lose nearly $1 trillion in a single day. Only after this did it lead to stricter regulation of trading, including the later circuit breaker mechanism. In the crypto currency field, black swan events are even more frequent. The 2022 collapse of the Terra ecosystem wiped out thousands of billions of dollars from the market within days: Bitcoin fell from $39,000 to $29,000. Shortly afterward, Celsius announced it would stop withdrawals, then went bankrupt; Bitcoin then fell again from $28,000 to $19,000. Finally, that exchange that had once ranked second globally collapsed rapidly: billions of dollars in investors’ funds were frozen, and Bitcoin ultimately fell to $15,000. The impact these black swan events have caused in the crypto market is truly shocking. Since black swan events are going to happen sooner or later, what should investors do? First, diversify your investments. You should not only allocate to stocks, but also to gold, real estate, crypto assets, and so on. Second, make reasonable asset allocations—never put all your eggs in one basket. Especially when it comes to crypto exchanges, don’t leave all your funds on a single platform; distribute them across multiple different exchanges. Another angle is to learn how to take advantage of black swan opportunities. When a certain asset crashes because of a black swan event, if you can identify the truly promising projects, you may actually make a huge profit after the market recovers. But the prerequisite is that you must always be mentally prepared—know that black swan events will come, and plan ahead for the worst-case scenario. In the end, the lesson of black swan events is that anything that can possibly happen will happen. We can’t change whether black swan events occur; what we can do is reduce risk to the greatest extent possible, so that our investment portfolio is resilient enough to withstand pressure.