Friend.tech TVL is stable but Key price is declining. How to explain this counter-intuitive phenomenon?

1. First of all, you need to understand that under the assumption of pure speculation, a purchase of Key will result in an immediate loss of 22% based on book value (10% is just a blindfold), and an immediate loss of 70%+ based on EV (22% is just a second blinding trick) ;

2. After understanding the first step and then calculating again, you will find that the key price does not need to rise to a very high position to extend the EV payback period indefinitely. At this time, the entire FT market will become a [guess the mean 2] /3】Multiple games, the Key price speculation threshold corresponding to the market equilibrium point continues to decrease, that is, at this stage, funds are flowing to lower-priced Keys, and the market with lower market value has been monopolized by Bot;

3. What breaks the game is to reduce the ranking of some keys in potential liquidation by providing utility, thereby increasing the EV of other keys, until we get rid of Ponzi. Unfortunately, Bot and 5% FT handling fees are killing this market, eliminating the problem of breaking the game. possibility.

4. How to understand the difference between EV and book value:

Zhang San, Li Si and Wang Wu raised funds to buy a cow, a duck and an egg.

It is agreed that the person who quits first will take the cow, the second person will take the duck, and the last person will take the egg.

Zhang San/Li Si/Wang Wu all feel that they have the right to claim a cow.

But in fact, their rights to claim are equal.

In the end, there were 6 results, and three of them took them respectively:

1. Cow and duck eggs 2) Cow and duck eggs 3) Egg and duck and cow 4) Egg and cow and duck 5) Duck and cow eggs 6) Duck and egg and cow

The six probabilities are equal

Therefore, what Zhang San really owns is =2/6*cow+2/6*egg+2/6*duck

That is 1/3 cow, 1/3 duck, 1/3 egg

At this time, Zhao Liuxin joined the game and he needed to provide a house

When he joined, the house was divided into four parts, and Zhang, Li, Si, Wang and Wu each got 1/4.

This is why from an EV perspective, buying means losing 70%+