¿Se desacelera la "teoría de la disrupción de la IA" en la industria del software? Después de que las posiciones cortas alcanzaran su nivel más alto en 17 años, los fondos de cobertura comienzan a "comprar en represalia"

智通财经APP注意到，在因担忧 AI 颠覆而经历了数月的沉重抛压后，软件股似乎已经触底——至少目前如此。

The Zhichun Finance APP notes that after months of heavy selling pressure due to concerns over AI disruption, software stocks seem to have bottomed out—at least for now.

标准普尔 500 软件指数刚创下 5 月以来表现最好的一周。备受关注的 iShares 扩容科技软件板块 ETF(IGV.US)刚刚录得 11 个月来最强劲的单周涨幅。自 2 月 23 日以来，该指数已累计上涨 14%，而此前 Citrini Research 曾以对 AI 未来的反乌托邦式愿景引发了市场动荡。

The S&P 500 Software Index has just recorded its best week since May. The closely watched iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV.US) has just posted its strongest single-week gain in 11 months. Since February 23, the index has risen 14%, after prior turbulence in the market triggered by Citrini Research’s dystopian vision of the future of AI.

尽管本周的回调使涨幅有所收窄，但由于去年下半年开始的抛售，这些股票目前看起来仍然很便宜。高盛的一篮子软件股远期市盈率为 22 倍，而标准普尔 500 指数为 21 倍。在过去十年中，该篮子股票的平均市盈率为 52 倍，而标准普尔 500 指数的平均值为 19 倍。

Although this week’s pullback has narrowed the gains, these stocks still look cheap due to the selloff that began in the second half of last year. Goldman Sachs’ basket of software stocks has a forward P/E ratio of 22, compared to 21 for the S&P 500 index. Over the past decade, the average P/E ratio for this basket of stocks has been 52, while the average for the S&P 500 index has been 19.

云软件提供商赛富时(CRM.US)的股价市盈率不足 15 倍，而其 10 年平均值为 46 倍。微软(MSFT.US)的市盈率为 22 倍，低于其 10 年平均值 27 倍。

Cloud software provider Salesforce (CRM.US) has a P/E ratio of less than 15, while its 10-year average is 46. Microsoft (MSFT.US) has a P/E ratio of 22, below its 10-year average of 27.

管理着 390 亿美元资产的 Mirova 基金经理 Hua Cheng 表示，“我们看到估值与高质量基本面之间存在巨大脱节，其中的风险似乎被夸大了。”

Hua Cheng, a fund manager at Mirova managing $39 billion in assets, said, “We see a huge disconnect between valuations and high-quality fundamentals, with the risks seemingly exaggerated.”

软件市盈率接近历史低位

Software P/E ratios near historical lows

“风险”一直是软件制造商周遭的关键词，因为投资者担心 AI 对这些业务的影响。其逻辑是，如果 AI 智能体可以编写代码，企业就可以自行构建软件套件，从而淘汰他们曾经购买服务的软件公司。

“Risk” has been the keyword surrounding software manufacturers, as investors worry about the impact of AI on these businesses. The logic is that if AI agents can write code, companies can build software suites themselves, thus eliminating the software companies from which they once purchased services.

随着 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等 AI 初创公司的每一项新进展，从金融到旅游，当然还有软件等行业的股票都会遭到抛售。事实上，就在 Citrini 的研究报告发布的同一天，IBM 的股价在 Anthropic 发布一款工具后遭受重挫，该工具恰恰激发了上述担忧。

With each new advancement from AI startups like Anthropic and OpenAI, stocks across industries from finance to travel, and of course software, have been sold off. In fact, on the very day Citrini’s research report was released, IBM shares plummeted after Anthropic released a tool that sparked those very concerns.

在整个抛售过程中，尽管许多软件股看多者称对利润和营收增长前景的担忧过于夸张。然而，股价依然持续下跌，最终导致 IGV 从 9 月的高点跌至 2 月 23 日近期底部的跌幅达 35%。

Throughout the selloff, many bullish software stock proponents argued that the concerns over profit and revenue growth prospects were exaggerated. However, stock prices continued to decline, ultimately causing IGV to drop 35% from its September highs to its recent bottom on February 23.

自那以后，软件股一直在上演反弹。根据德银证券的数据，在 2 月底看跌头寸达到 17 年来的最高水平后，对冲基金已经转而看好该板块。高盛追踪软件公司与半导体公司的篮子本月上涨了约 9%，原因是投资者正在回补软件股空头并解除拥挤的芯片股头寸。

Since then, software stocks have been rebounding. According to Deutsche Bank data, hedge funds have turned bullish on the sector after bearish positions hit a 17-year high at the end of February. Goldman Sachs’ basket tracking software companies and semiconductor companies has risen about 9% this month, as investors are covering shorts in software stocks and unwinding crowded chip stock positions.

期权交易也显示出类似的情绪转变，随着仓位从深度超卖水平转向积极的看涨介入，对软件板块风险敞口的需求激增。

Options trading also shows a similar sentiment shift, with positioning moving from deep oversold levels to active bullish engagement, driving a surge in demand for software sector risk exposure.

推动反弹的因素之一是 Anthropic 在 2 月 24 日举办的一场活动，该公司在会上展示了与多家曾处于交易员“准星”之下的老牌企业合作开发的新工具。

One of the factors driving the rebound was an event held by Anthropic on February 24, where the company showcased new tools developed in collaboration with several legacy companies that had previously been under the traders’ “crosshairs.”

另一个因素是基本面。即便在股价遭到抛售时，2026 年的利润预期仍在上升。数据显示，标准普尔 500 指数中的软件和服务公司预计今年的盈利增长将达到 21%，高于 2025 年底的 17%。在第四季度，标准普尔 500 指数中 93% 的软件公司利润超出预期，而大盘指数的这一比例为 74%。

Another factor is the fundamentals. Even amid the selloff, profit expectations for 2026 continue to rise. Data shows that software and services companies in the S&P 500 are expected to see earnings growth of 21% this year, up from 17% at the end of 2025. In the fourth quarter, 93% of software companies in the S&P 500 exceeded profit expectations, compared to 74% for the broader index.

“在咨询了各路专家、通才、Gemini、ChatGPT 和 Claude 之后，我们仍然没有遇到任何一家预计 2026 年 AI 会对营收产生负面影响的软件公司，”德意志银行策略师在周二发布的一份报告中写道，他们在报告中将科技板块内的软件股评级上调至“增持”。“我们认为对 AI 颠覆的担忧已经见顶。”

“After consulting with various experts, generalists, Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, we have yet to come across any software company that expects AI to have a negative impact on revenues in 2026,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategists in a report released on Tuesday, in which they upgraded their rating on software stocks within the tech sector to “overweight.” “We believe the concerns about AI disruption have peaked.”

这或许可以解释为什么买盘激增。杰富瑞股票交易台董事总经理 Michael Toomey 表示，上周仅做多的投资者平均买入的软件股数量是卖出数量的两倍。

This may explain why there has been a surge in buying. Jefferies’ stock trading desk managing director Michael Toomey stated that last week, investors who were only going long bought an average of twice as many software stocks as they sold.

“如此极端的偏差值得关注，”他表示，“巅峰时期的歇斯底里刚把所有人都洗出去了。”

“This extreme deviation is worth noting,” he said. “The hysteria at peak times just washed everyone out.”

软件行业已从近期低点反弹

The software industry has rebounded from recent lows

回购承诺也有助于提振股价。赛富时和 Wix.com Ltd. 是承诺积极回购遭受重创股票的软件商之一。赛富时计划出售高达 250 亿美元的债务来资助其回购。

Buyback commitments also help boost stock prices. Salesforce and Wix.com Ltd. are among the software companies committing to aggressively repurchase battered stocks. Salesforce plans to sell up to $25 billion in debt to fund its buybacks.

“我们将股票回购授权额度增加到 500 亿美元，因为这些价格实在太低了，”首席执行官 Marc Benioff 在 2 月 25 日的公司财报电话会议上表示，“这已经不是我们第一次经历‘SaaS末日’了。”

“We are increasing our stock buyback authorization to $50 billion because these prices are just too low,” said CEO Marc Benioff on the company’s earnings call on February 25. “This is not our first time experiencing the ‘SaaS apocalypse.’”

市值不足 50 亿美元的 Wix 上周开始以“改良荷兰式拍卖”方式招标回购价值高达 17.5 亿美元的股票。Intuit Inc. 的高管在上月底的财报电话会议上表示，公司也目标在今年“显著增加”回购。

Wix, with a market cap of less than $5 billion, began last week to solicit bids to repurchase up to $1.75 billion of stock via a “modified Dutch auction.” Executives at Intuit Inc. stated during their earnings call at the end of last month that the company also aims to “significantly increase” buybacks this year.

富兰克林邓普顿高级市场策略师 Chris Galipeau 认为，此类公告通常是积极信号。

Franklin Templeton’s senior market strategist Chris Galipeau believes such announcements are typically positive signals.

“如果你是首席执行官并宣布这一消息，你这样做唯一的理由是你相信自己的业务定位良好，周围的担忧被夸大了，而且这是你看到的资本最佳用途，”他说。

“If you are the CEO and you announce this, the only reason you would do so is that you believe your business is positioned well, that the concerns around it are exaggerated, and that this is the best use of capital you see,” he said.

然而，公司内部人士的增持信号仍然缺位。根据 Washington Service 汇编的数据，软件公司高管在 12 月购买股票的金额达到 3090 万美元，为近两年来的最高点。随着股票抛售在 1 月和 2 月进入白热化阶段，这一趋势显著放缓。

However, signals of insider buying from corporate executives remain absent. According to data compiled by Washington Service, software company executives purchased $30.9 million in stock in December, the highest level in nearly two years. This trend significantly slowed as stock selloffs intensified in January and February.

“这不仅是股票回购，而是加速回购，这凸显了管理层对前景的信心，”Galipeau 说，“内部人士的购股行为可以进一步强化这一信号。”

“This is not just stock buybacks, but accelerated buybacks, which highlights management’s confidence in the outlook,” Galipeau said. “Insider buying can further reinforce this signal.”

甲骨文公司股票估值下跌

Oracle Corporation’s stock valuation declines