[Red Packet] Perfect Market Risk Prediction! What Are the Signals of Market Bottom?

Hello everyone, I am Xiaoxin. My trading system can be summarized with words like “timing, main trend, leading stocks, low frequency,” which is the Long Kong Long model. [Taogu Ba]
Follow me, and let’s catch the leading stocks together. If there are true leaders in the market and I haven’t shared them, just unfollow!
Yesterday’s review post clearly warned about today’s market risks. Those who read it carefully avoided the pitfalls today!

1. Practical Analysis of Leading Stocks Trading

Today’s pre-market plan:

1. GCL System Integration: Due to Yunnan Energy’s JG delay, it will inevitably cause significant negative feedback on electricity. So, I will observe initially at the open. Core stocks like Yunnan Energy Holdings, China Energy Construction, China Electric Power Construction, and GCL System Integration opened lower, effectively sentencing the electricity sector to death, so Yunnan Energy naturally lost focus.

Clear transaction records do not mean buying when prices fall or selling when prices rise; I never act after the fact. How I operate is exactly how I said in the public area.

2. China Western Electric: Focused on last Friday’s bidding, unfollowed today at the open.
   Trading logic:
   As a strong trend stock in the power sector, it had a continuous correction on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The 10-day moving average was a key point of contention with some value, so I bought on Friday.
   Today, it opened high with no volume, and given the Yunnan Energy issue, I predicted continued divergence at the open, so I unfollowed immediately—unintentionally unfollowed at the highest point.

3. Tuowei Information: Bought in last Monday’s bidding, added on Tuesday, then shifted from an active pattern to a passive lock-in, from a floating profit of 10% to floating loss. The lobster theme failed in the game. This operation warrants deep reflection. Today shows signs of stabilizing, so I will hold and see if Huawei’s conference before the event can push the stock higher. I have no other stocks I want to buy anyway.

Trading logic:
(1) From a fundamental perspective: The company relies on open-source Hongmeng OS 3.0’s underlying capabilities, first completing deep adaptation and pre-integration of OpenClaw (lobster), launching an AI BOX with fusion capabilities, making it a genuine lobster concept stock.
(2) From a technical perspective: Last Friday’s涨停 (limit-up) stocks in the lobster concept included Tuowei Information, Jinhang Technology, Ningbo Construction. Although Ningbo Construction was the first to hit the limit, it’s clear that Tuowei Information has better popularity and momentum. If Ningbo Construction is an emotional leader, then Tuowei Information is the real leader (distinguishing genuine from false leaders can be seen in the first main post). Both on Feb 27 and Mar 6, it hit涨停, forming an ascending three-line pattern indicating bottom reversal signals; recent volume accumulation suggests big funds are building positions.
(3) From speculation expectations: Huawei China Partner Conference 2026 is coming up on March 19-20. Before the conference, Tuowei Information still has expectations.
(4) Operational logic: Buying on Monday’s slight high at the expected point, adding on Tuesday’s bid with a green volume is routine. But then, the active pattern was overdone, turning into passive lock-in.
Reflections on operation:
Ø During chaotic phases, low buy and high sell arbitrage are key, but Tuowei overextended this pattern, which is a main upward operation method, misapplied in chaos, turning profits into losses.
Ø As a new theme, lobster has been widely discussed, with constant news daily. Subjectively, I believe it will become a sustained market theme, but whether it can truly sustain depends on market funds, not just potential. Last week’s hype was below expectations, and continued weakness on Wednesday showed it lacked market recognition, yet some still fantasize about a rebound. Respect the market, follow the market, and avoid subjective guesses—this still needs improvement.

Follow me to see pre-market plans first; I will share them openly in the comment area every morning!

2. The Three Steps to Find the Dragon
(1) From the emotional cycle perspective:
Last Friday’s divergence was large. After the important meeting, stabilization funds withdrew, and the market chose to cash out; today, sentiment continued to decline, with space pressure at three consecutive limit-downs, entering a retreat phase. Wait for the ice point recovery day before acting.
(2) From theme speculation:
Power sector retreating, with Yunnan Energy Holdings falling two limits, China Energy Construction and China Electric Power Construction also falling, marking the end of this wave of power sector hype. If it restarts, it will be a new wave. Wind power, as a complementary theme, also ended.
A day rotated through many themes: marine economy, chemicals, communications, storage, etc.
Waiting for sustained themes to emerge; it’s better to stay on the sidelines before that.
(3) From individual stocks:
The leading Yunnan Energy Holdings just ended; new leaders won’t appear so quickly.

3. Leader Comments

1. Yunnan Energy Holdings: Had potential to become a major leader, but was delayed by two suspension warnings from the company, then died in JG. Fell limit down last Friday; JG still delayed, directly sentencing Yunnan Energy to death. It was born during the chaotic phase, almost leading sentiment into a main rise. It had favorable timing—important meeting proposing power collaboration gave it a golden edge—and support from small teams like China Energy Construction, GCL System Integration, Shunna Shares. But it lacked harmony—secretary’s suspension warnings and strong JG made it difficult.
2. Shunna Shares: Perfectly predicted in Thursday’s review, adjusted on Friday amid anomalies.

Unfortunately, although avoiding anomalies, it hit the limit today. The power theme is over, so Shunna Shares faces a test of resilience (divergence in themes). Without theme support, it lacks the key condition to become a major leader. If power sector divergence continues tomorrow, it may experience further decline. Watch and see. If it can hold, and power sector rebounds again, Shunna Shares might have the potential to cross the妖潜 (hidden dragon).

4. Tomorrow’s Observation Focus
Let’s review what was mentioned in yesterday’s review about what to observe today:

1, 3, 4 all show negative feedback, indicating the market is weak and should be controlled immediately.

What to observe tomorrow?
The index again retested the previous low and rebounded, forming a “three-needle bottom” pattern. But is this really the bottom? Question it.
Tomorrow, a strong upward move must break through the three lines (5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages) to confirm a bottom reversal; otherwise, beware that today’s decline is a continuation, and the “three-needle bottom” might be a trap!

5. Market Risk Reminder
If the index continues to fall, beware of a main downward wave. As sentiment enters a retreat phase, collective sentiment-driven declines are most deadly. Holding cash and observing is the best choice.

6. Sharing Insights (from Fudō Myō-ō’s “The Survival Path in a Bear Market”)

Q: What are the signals of a bottom?
A: 1. Recovery of the 5-day moving average; 2. Reversal of volume; 3. Emergence of consistently strong sectors. Before the trend changes from down to up, I maintain a bearish view. Before the trend shifts from up to down, I maintain a bullish view. Specific prediction levels and space are wishful thinking. The three signals above are what I consider the major signs of a rebound.
Interpretation: Many retail investors like to buy the bottom, but most end up caught in the middle, leading to losses. When the bottom is truly in, they often have no bullets left. The biggest mistake in bottom-fishing is subjective guessing. Statistically, buying at the bottom during a decline and buying at the top during an uptrend are equally unlikely. So, bottom-fishing generally results in buying halfway up the mountain. The three signals I mentioned follow the objective market trend, abandoning subjective guesses. This approach might miss the initial rebound, but it filters out many subjective guesses that lead to being caught in the middle—seemingly foolish but actually the wisest.

Q: How to understand “ground volume indicates ground price”?
A: This phrase is incorrect. After a volume trough, there is volume again. Volume troughs are part of a continuous process of shrinking volume. That’s why there is volume afterward.
What is a volume shift? It’s when the shrinking trend begins to turn into expanding volume. Shrinking volume is just a possible pre-bottom condition, a small part of the picture. The key is the significant increase in volume—an expansion—which confirms the trend reversal.
Interpretation: Shrinking volume only shows selling pressure is weak but doesn’t guarantee buying interest. Many cases show prolonged declining volume without buying. The transition from shrinking to expanding volume objectively proves new funds are entering. Only sustained volume expansion supports a trend reversal. For judging bottoms, both shrinking and expanding volume are essential.

Q: Why does a sustained strong sector indicate a bottom?
A: Only when one or several obvious leading sectors appear will market enthusiasm be active. Without strong sectors creating an atmosphere, only previous strong stocks are correcting.
Interpretation: Sustained strong sectors mainly stimulate market profitability. Capital flows toward profitable areas. True bottoms require capital-driven support. Only local profit effects can quickly attract funds for arbitrage and activate the market.

One sentence to comment on today’s market:
China X Construction’s three giants led the decline!

That’s all for today! Thanks everyone for your recognition and support! If you have questions, feel free to discuss in the comment area!
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