What happens with Bitcoin at the beginning of March: Morgan, the market between consolidation and uncertainties

The market is questioning what will happen to Bitcoin after the failed attempt to maintain the rally recorded earlier this year. The main cryptocurrency is settling around $90,000 in the first week of January, down 2% compared to the early days of the year. The price has not surpassed the critical barrier of $95,000, which has become the focal point of technical resistance following the sharp sell-off in October, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high above $126,000.

What’s Holding Back Momentum: Factors at Play

The upward push seen at the start of the week, with the year-end rally, quickly exhausted itself. Bitcoin hit a peak just below $94,800 on Monday before losing momentum and dropping to $90,674. Market participants are adopting a defensive stance due to multiple uncertainties: tariffs on the agenda in Washington, doubts about the Fed’s guidance, and regulatory initiatives in the crypto sector.

The U.S. Supreme Court had not yet announced its decision expected Friday regarding the legal status of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This element of uncertainty, combined with ETF flows and geopolitical tensions, has kept Bitcoin in a phase of waiting and consolidation in the market.

Expert Opinions: What Moves the Market

Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, describes the post-rally normality: “After a positive start to 2026, we are observing the typical consolidation period following a strong upward move.” Economic data above expectations have cooled expectations of further interest rate cuts, limiting the push toward new all-time highs.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, offers another perspective: “Macroeconomic data generally show better-than-expected performance. This reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in March, creating short-term downward pressure.” However, not all analysts see this phase as negative.

Brian Vieten, senior analyst in digital assets and blockchain at Siebert Financial, interprets the current consolidation as constructive: “Bitcoin stabilizes around $90,000 after a prolonged decline due to concerns over tax-loss harvesting and the possibility that MSCI might exclude companies with treasury holdings in digital assets. Both risks have dissipated, and selling pressure has significantly eased.”

The Week’s Catalyst and Looking Ahead

The index provider MSCI has set aside this week the project to exclude companies with treasury holdings in digital assets from its indices, stating that they behave like common investment funds. This decision removes a source of downward pressure that had weighed on sentiment.

Despite short-term doubts, experts remain confident in long-term prospects. A sustained break above $95,000 could reignite systematic buying in the market. Butterfill suggests that the $200,000 level remains achievable by the end of the year, while Ostrovskis emphasizes that “a sustained break above $95,000 could trigger a reflexive price increase and bring Bitcoin back to six-figure quotes.” The market is thus awaiting the next catalyst to determine what will really happen to the leading cryptocurrency in the coming months.