#当前行情抄底还是观望？ Plunge of 50%! Bitcoin drops below 66,000, is this panic selling or a golden opportunity?

Bitcoin has been halved from its all-time high of $126,000, and Ethereum has plummeted over 60%. The entire network experienced liquidations of $458 million, with 140,000 traders being liquidated. When the market falls into "extreme fear," is it a crisis or an opportunity?

Today's News: Multiple negative factors piling up, market panic spreading
February 12, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced "Black Wednesday." Multiple negative news events erupted simultaneously, causing market sentiment to plummet.
Macro Impact: U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls released, adding 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025. This strong employment report directly dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut, pushing traders to delay the first rate cut from June to July.
Chain Reaction: Chicago-based crypto lending platform BlockFills announced a suspension of customer deposits and withdrawals, citing Bitcoin price declines and market downturn. This news recalls the industry crisis of 2022, further fueling market panic.
Regulatory Updates: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that Hong Kong plans to issue the first stablecoin licensing to issuers next month, aiming to establish Hong Kong as a global innovation hub for digital assets.
Capital Flows: Nicholas Peach, head of iShares Asia-Pacific at BlackRock, stated at Consensus Hong Kong that if Asian investment portfolios allocate 1% of assets to cryptocurrencies, it could bring nearly $2 trillion in new capital inflows.

Market Deep Dive: Technical battle between Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin (BTC)
Current Status: As of this morning, Bitcoin spot prices fluctuate between $67,000 and $68,000. It briefly fell below $66,000 within 24 hours, with a decline exceeding 4%. From its all-time high of $126,000 in December 2025, it has already fallen 50%.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: $65,000–$66,000 is a short-term critical support zone. If broken, it could drop to $63,000; $60,000 is a strong support level.
Resistance: $68,600 marks the bulls-bears dividing line. A breakout could target $70,000; above that, the strong resistance zone is between $72,000 and $73,500.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current Status: Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin, currently trading around $1,940. It touched a 24-hour low of $1,906.69, with a decline exceeding 5%. From its July 2025 high of $4,955, it has retraced over 60%.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: $1,900 is a short-term support. If broken, it could fall back to $1,850; $1,800 is a strong support level.
Resistance: $2,000 is a short-term resistance. A breakout could target $2,050; medium-term resistance is at $2,200.

Today's Trading Strategy: Seek structural opportunities in a defensive stance
The current price has entered the "golden pit" zone, suitable for dollar-cost averaging or grid trading. However, strict position control is essential—avoid going all-in at once. Recommended position size should not exceed 10% of total assets, employing a pyramid-style addition strategy.
Contract traders: Market volatility is intense; it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines. If going long, wait until prices firmly break above key resistance levels (Bitcoin $68,600, Ethereum $2,000). If shorting, beware of oversold rebounds.
Specific operational suggestions:
Bitcoin short-term: Enter long positions above $65,000 with a stop-loss at $64,500, targeting $68,000. If it falls below $64,500, consider reversing to short positions with a target of $63,000.
Ethereum short-term: Enter long positions above $1,900 with a stop-loss at $1,880, targeting $2,000. If it falls below $1,880, consider waiting or lightly shorting.
Mid-term strategy: The market is still in a consolidation and recovery phase. Post-NFP data, uncertainty remains. It’s advisable to wait and see before making further moves.
Institutional Views: Divergent but Pessimistic Consensus
Polymarket predicts an 82% chance that Bitcoin will drop to $65,000 this year, and about a 60% chance it will fall below $55,000. Citigroup analysts note that U.S. spot ETF fund inflows have significantly cooled, and with a lack of new demand, long-term holders are beginning to worry about Bitcoin’s cyclical weakness.
Optimistic Outlook: JPMorgan’s latest research report raised expectations for the crypto market, believing that despite recent sharp corrections, institutional inflows and clearer regulations will support a recovery in digital assets by 2026. The bank expects that in 2026, institutional investors will dominate capital inflows, driving the market higher.
Industry Giants’ Actions: Val Vavilov stated that the recent crypto crash presents a buying opportunity, and investors should rebalance their portfolios by buying Bitcoin at lower prices. Meanwhile, iShares Bitcoin ETP added 660,000 securities, indicating ongoing institutional investment.

Market Outlook
Short-term Outlook: The crypto market is in a stabilization and recovery phase after a sharp decline. Key points to watch are whether Bitcoin can hold above $68,600 and whether Ethereum can break through $2,000. Breaking key resistance could extend the rebound; losing key support might lead to another bottom.
Mid-term Factors: If Ethereum’s EIP-8025 proposal is implemented, it will enhance network performance, benefiting Ethereum’s ecosystem long-term. Bitcoin still awaits clarity on Federal Reserve monetary policy; if rate cuts are confirmed, a rebound is likely. When the Fear Index drops to 11 and market despair is widespread, historical experience suggests that extreme fear often signals the best buying opportunities. But is this time really different?